NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcafce5f132f3caf062126626d2930192b8e127c8898a6314c34be4e3aff539ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 1,963$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.31 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 56c | 1,257$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.11 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 59c | 691.3$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.13 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 59c | 511$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.51 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 57c | 295.85$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 41c | 291.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…3364backed Under | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 217.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…3275backed Over | 52c | 217.24$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946a…fa56backed Over | 52c | 215.88$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2492…b1e2backed Over | 52c | 214.76$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…e6cebacked Under | 48c | 214$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c5…23d2backed Under | 48c | 214$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…20d1backed Under | 48c | 214$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ea…9456backed Under | 48c | 212$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfc…df94backed Under | 48c | 212$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…c0dabacked Over | 52c | 210.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 43c | 209.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…9e71backed Over | 52c | 208.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…a920backed Over | 52c | 208.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…1e01backed Over | 52c | 207.96$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25b…c821backed Under | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ec…48f8backed Under | 48c | 205$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…fc2dbacked Over | 52c | 203.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f44…fb06backed Over | 52c | 202.04$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b3…39c1backed Under | 48c | 196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 40c | 189.86$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447e…e731backed Over | 52c | 185.95$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 41c | 183.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.16 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…7d03backed Under | 48c | 182$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 55c | 175.96$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Over | 60c | 172.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6e…3085backed Under | 42c | 172$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 41c | 165.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 164.8$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Under | 43c | 163.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898c…5568backed Under | 41c | 153$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2789…a84ebacked Under | 41c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Under | 40c | 123.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 57c | 117.62$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…629fbacked Under | 45c | 110.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 40c | 96.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Over | 56c | 83.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54df…51fabacked Over | 60c | 82.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7985…4801backed Over | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed Under | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…90f5backed Over | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 36c | 67.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 43c | 66.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 236 | 57.2%135 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Under | 43c | 64.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 64c | 59.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x315d…b420backed Under | 21c | 58.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 45c | 51.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…d499backed Over | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…1bf2backed Over | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…9e37backed Over | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…8758backed Under | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…0220backed Over | 60c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6255…9d73backed Over | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 58c | 32.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…b034backed Over | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…d8b5backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd808…b3acbacked Over | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc703…79debacked Over | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…379bbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa7…d4febacked Over | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…1a96backed Under | 44c | 23.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…4171backed Over | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Over | 61c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 235.5this page
- Bulls vs. ThunderThunder won
- Bulls vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 240.5Over won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 18.5No won
- Nick Richards: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Nick Richards: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Thunder (-19.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Thunder (-20.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.