TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Thunder: O/U 237.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,063
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,135

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,063 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4df3…788fbacked Under44c11,271$4,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,925.046,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Over57c10,943$6,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,705.5344352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…3b26backed Under43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,30016346.6%76 W · 87 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over55c5,381$2,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,421.5427747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Over57c3,481$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.9510860.2%65 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over57c2,932$1,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.384,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c1,302$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.64,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Under43c921.53$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.2622836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…5925backed Over53c676.55$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.5317643.2%76 W · 100 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under43c444.25$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.031,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over57c431.08$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.778,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over54c353.93$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.073,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over55c310.69$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.692,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Over55c263.49$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.5762744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under47c249.64$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3355347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under48c234.27$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6387453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f43…c0c2backed Over54c230$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.823435.9%84 W · 150 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Under42c150.05$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.021,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over53c143.22$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.312,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under47c142.33$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.960945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0204…0e31backed Under47c137.98$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6528949.1%142 W · 147 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x931f…2e44backed Under47c132.18$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.234438.6%17 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Over55c110.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.527455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under45c105$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.753,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Under54c103.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5616555.2%91 W · 74 L-12.1wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-11.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Under45c91.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2638947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Over51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4319849%97 W · 101 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under47c68.53$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4923651.3%121 W · 115 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over58c68.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.991,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under51c66.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5265630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under46c61.56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.322,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over57c60.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6541449.3%204 W · 210 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under48c59.38$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.555444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Under45c54.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.641,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ce5…af2ebacked Over57c53.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.168134.6%28 W · 53 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over58c53.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.911,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Over52c48.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4858450.2%293 W · 291 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Over57c48.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6944551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Under47c47.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5224841.9%104 W · 144 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86da…401cbacked Over49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.826544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x898f…e9f2backed Over54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.047354.8%40 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…51dabacked Over56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.713545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under43c33.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.392,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2502…87e5backed Over57c30.85$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.253056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Over55c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.66734.3%23 W · 44 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-34%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over52c28.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8278648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefcb…f64abacked Under47c28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.164332.6%14 W · 29 L-7.2wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-35.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8fa7…d4febacked Over55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2710850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2535546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Over53c24.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.381349.4%402 W · 411 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Over64c20.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.513950.4%70 W · 69 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.