TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Moise Kouame

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuno Borgesof Nuno Borges, Moise Kouame
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$250,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$269,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,449 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Moise Kouame2c52,575$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.748,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Nuno Borges77c38,930$30,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,929.717746.3%82 W · 95 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Moise Kouame5c21,336$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98071729.8%214 W · 503 L-39.8wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xead0…3d74backed Nuno Borges75c13,290$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.752070%14 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd849…6ac7backed Nuno Borges76c12,645$9,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,030.599962.6%62 W · 37 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Moise Kouame23c12,139$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.1111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Moise Kouame18c10,800$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.148,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Moise Kouame21c10,000$2,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.4852844.7%236 W · 292 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed Moise Kouame22c6,455$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.471,14941.3%474 W · 675 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff81…44c9backed Nuno Borges78c5,557$4,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.131,26756.6%717 W · 550 L-18.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Moise Kouame23c3,419$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.42,17436.9%802 W · 1,372 L+39.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Moise Kouame23c2,590$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.532,37551.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L+8.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Moise Kouame21c2,069$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.21,95943.7%857 W · 1,102 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ace…c46ebacked Moise Kouame10c2,041$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20028221.6%61 W · 221 L+0.6wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Moise Kouame20c2,006$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.222,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Moise Kouame24c1,688$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.153,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Moise Kouame24c1,660$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.0272638.8%282 W · 444 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Moise Kouame23c1,618$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.262,28152%1,187 W · 1,094 L+82.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Moise Kouame25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37529146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7753…73cebacked Nuno Borges76c1,440$1,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.1423670.8%167 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Moise Kouame24c1,332$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.6722255.4%123 W · 99 L+0.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c70…caf0backed Nuno Borges77c1,305$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.410470.2%73 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84f…7e0ebacked Nuno Borges75c1,300$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+72.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Moise Kouame19c1,251$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.448,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66c…eee2backed Moise Kouame13c1,191$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a6d…38c1backed Moise Kouame17c1,118$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Nuno Borges74c1,089$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.6629443.5%128 W · 166 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Moise Kouame9c1,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10064540.2%259 W · 386 L-19.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd552…5ebebacked Moise Kouame9c1,068$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10036038.9%140 W · 220 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67be…6e09backed Moise Kouame16c900$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.848941.1%201 W · 288 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Moise Kouame23c867$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.4156827.3%155 W · 413 L+23.1wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+25%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed7d…5852backed Moise Kouame9c814.74$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705558.2%32 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d47…64eebacked Moise Kouame26c800$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.727728.6%22 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Moise Kouame22c701.34$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.424,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Moise Kouame24c600$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.52,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Moise Kouame23c600$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.47,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…6929backed Moise Kouame11c599.17$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6714947%70 W · 79 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee43…ae9dbacked Nuno Borges74c537.63$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.636454.7%35 W · 29 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Moise Kouame14c515.7$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.382,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…ecdbbacked Moise Kouame10c460.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8548935.8%175 W · 314 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Moise Kouame26c443.08$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.382,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x930b…faa6backed Moise Kouame3c431.1$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128043.8%35 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed Moise Kouame19c429.11$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3217224.4%42 W · 130 L-16.4wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd46e…d10dbacked Moise Kouame10c406.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3958931.1%183 W · 406 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Moise Kouame10c399.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.622,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Moise Kouame26c390.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018454.3%100 W · 84 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Nuno Borges77c389.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5663252.8%334 W · 298 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked Nuno Borges74c349.98$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.5912258.2%71 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Moise Kouame25c317.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3885250%426 W · 426 L+22.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30dc…768ebacked Nuno Borges77c275.63$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6311564.3%74 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d3f…d6e2backed Nuno Borges76c261.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.785050%25 W · 25 L-7.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-32.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Moise Kouame25c255.86$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.671,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Moise Kouame9c215.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024931.3%78 W · 171 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…af12backed Moise Kouame16c201.95$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.112,03246.9%952 W · 1,080 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Nuno Borges74c201.61$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6191754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Moise Kouame25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1226…f998backed Moise Kouame26c194.55$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029940.1%120 W · 179 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Moise Kouame10c161.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8587741.3%362 W · 515 L-14.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00e8…0039backed Moise Kouame9c161.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159715.5%15 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Moise Kouame26c154.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.981,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Moise Kouame25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.583447.5%396 W · 438 L-2.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Nuno Borges75c146.45$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.284,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce8…4dd6backed Moise Kouame12c137.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1657950.9%295 W · 284 L+2.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7f23…441fbacked Moise Kouame26c116.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32c6…bf45backed Moise Kouame23c108.7$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c01…98d7backed Moise Kouame9c108.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Nuno Borges77c104.44$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.446860.3%41 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e80…f694backed Nuno Borges74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Nuno Borges77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.43,87445.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dde…30b1backed Moise Kouame24c99.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8282958.1%482 W · 347 L+17.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84e5…3fedbacked Nuno Borges77c91.03$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.039367.7%63 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Moise Kouame17c78.6$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Moise Kouame26c77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.941,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Moise Kouame17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.596,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x150c…add3backed Nuno Borges74c67.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.220670.4%145 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x065c…47debacked Nuno Borges74c66.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9413850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…f624backed Moise Kouame25c62.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9114257%81 W · 61 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed Moise Kouame25c60.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.117545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Moise Kouame25c60.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0557845.7%264 W · 314 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Moise Kouame25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1185637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed Moise Kouame25c53.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2748245.6%220 W · 262 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb515…7e2bbacked Nuno Borges74c53.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.762568%17 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Nuno Borges75c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.751,25044.7%559 W · 691 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15cf…4d9bbacked Moise Kouame26c49.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7957449.1%282 W · 292 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e20…5cf9backed Moise Kouame24c49.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1235555.5%197 W · 158 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c99…ebdcbacked Moise Kouame26c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0813043.1%56 W · 74 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Nuno Borges76c41.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.111,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked Nuno Borges74c36.09$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.244759.6%28 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x341d…2995backed Nuno Borges77c28.44$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4431161.1%190 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf970…f7f6backed Nuno Borges74c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.912,48535.9%893 W · 1,592 L-28.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Nuno Borges75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.361152.2%319 W · 292 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x205d…2ad2backed Nuno Borges79c23.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9922366.8%149 W · 74 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03c1…3e98backed Nuno Borges74c20.24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-67.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Nuno Borges76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5490152.3%471 W · 430 L-2.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Nuno Borges75c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2832546.2%150 W · 175 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39ea…bec0backed Nuno Borges74c16.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick78cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c52…99e1backed Nuno Borges75c16.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.098282.9%68 W · 14 L+10.1wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5437…6e45backed Nuno Borges76c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.62263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Nuno Borges74c13.64$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4926664.7%172 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3785…f577backed Nuno Borges75c13.4$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.385248.1%25 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.