CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90bd4dbcdaa64559f7a83459c21f34c705f2e44c222fdab3cf1ddd226e37df64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof TheMongolz, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Astralis | 58c | 5,251$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200.46 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz | 30c | 3,979$1,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.15 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1569…4e0cbacked Astralis | 78c | 3,405$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.61 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed TheMongolz | 19c | 2,115$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.14 | 324 | 25.3%82 W · 242 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…2c23backed TheMongolz | 38c | 1,980$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.19 | 196 | 60.7%119 W · 77 L | -13.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…ee55backed TheMongolz | 29c | 1,800$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz | 54c | 1,225$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.04 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed TheMongolz | 62c | 819.66$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.19 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 44c | 732$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.88 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8860…4708backed TheMongolz | 46c | 619.5$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Astralis | 37c | 549.14$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.96 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed TheMongolz | 48c | 508.12$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.51 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Astralis | 36c | 507.45$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.24 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked TheMongolz | 39c | 388.38$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…5f0dbacked Astralis | 53c | 353.47$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.13 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed TheMongolz | 63c | 262.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.69 | 105 | 38.1%40 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked TheMongolz | 56c | 166.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 242 | 49.2%119 W · 123 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9dd0backed TheMongolz | 52c | 145.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed TheMongolz | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -12.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed TheMongolz | 49c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…4893backed Astralis | 44c | 109.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed Astralis | 58c | 104.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Astralis | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed TheMongolz | 48c | 54.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked TheMongolz | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed TheMongolz | 63c | 43.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 174 | 62.1%108 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f22…be14backed Astralis | 57c | 43.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…859dbacked Astralis | 42c | 40.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Astralis | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Astralis | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…09f2backed Astralis | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…6cf5backed Astralis | 71c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…23ecbacked TheMongolz | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked Astralis | 60c | 20.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis (BO3)Astralis won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.