CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cc93c603d9b9c437b82021d7995619fcb6b6781c0182b7d4eb47c4c3c3cb162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof TheMongolz, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed TheMongolz | 24c | 6,625$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.71 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked TheMongolz | 25c | 3,135$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.47 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed TheMongolz | 45c | 1,634$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.88 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Astralis | 45c | 900$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…4895backed TheMongolz | 24c | 846$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked TheMongolz | 22c | 702.12$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.38 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed TheMongolz | 26c | 697$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed TheMongolz | 22c | 649.24$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed TheMongolz | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed TheMongolz | 33c | 397.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed TheMongolz | 20c | 394.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…db7abacked Astralis | 70c | 393.77$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Astralis | 69c | 369$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.39 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 50c | 350$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Astralis | 49c | 332$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.32 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…757fbacked TheMongolz | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d7…f09ebacked TheMongolz | 25c | 238.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked TheMongolz | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…448ebacked TheMongolz | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2472…5f0dbacked Astralis | 71c | 189.24$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Astralis | 77c | 158.88$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.09 | 250 | 70.8%177 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed TheMongolz | 34c | 152.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…04dabacked TheMongolz | 31c | 130$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9dd0backed Astralis | 72c | 104.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…859dbacked TheMongolz | 48c | 97.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked TheMongolz | 24c | 63.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf376…9356backed TheMongolz | 22c | 62.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked TheMongolz | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked TheMongolz | 33c | 52.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed TheMongolz | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…0cb9backed TheMongolz | 25c | 45.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…d9febacked Astralis | 80c | 40.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf72…4893backed Astralis | 67c | 39.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Astralis | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked TheMongolz | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ef…d6a0backed TheMongolz | 58c | 29.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Astralis | 44c | 26.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis (BO3)Astralis won
- Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.