TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,236
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,236 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes4c1,237$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.341145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes47c1,205$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.137832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c95…8188backed Yes3c708.27$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.829122%20 W · 71 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+359.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes13c665.34$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes43c648.72$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes5c608$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.524,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes7c606.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1645130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes16c591.79$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.682,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c527.83$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.577,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No55c413.56$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.281,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c327.28$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.591,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes4c313.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes32c299.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.126744.8%30 W · 37 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes15c265.65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3174926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes43c236.43$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6843238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes5c227.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.575,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked Yes11c225.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.833318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes42c224.87$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.396237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c214.51$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.495,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes33c213.13$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5340741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No50c161.82$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6328737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c154.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes10c151.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2313051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes15c149.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.51,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No61c136.72$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes33c130.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.438,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…5430backed Yes49c130$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes18c129.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.044,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes20c125.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.757231.9%23 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+66.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No79c123.66$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.662,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No63c122.84$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes47c120.54$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.174057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c120.02$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.142,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c119.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes44c114.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes41c110.44$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.051,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4686…329ebacked No50c100.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes52c100.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5810850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4168335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No62c94.94$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.542,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes44c94.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.691,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes39c90.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1886…b41dbacked No51c89.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No49c82.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3625049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes49c80$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.214043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes51c80$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.88725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98e9…bf91backed Yes37c75.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.155536.4%20 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes21c74.46$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4101…d968backed Yes43c71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.572540%10 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c70.48$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.913,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes15c67.37$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes39c62.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.412,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.628649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5480050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes41c58.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.933,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes48c55.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes48c54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes49c52.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7358358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes47c50.43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.72,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bb2…8948backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-60.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb7…71d5backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1671649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5157…fdbcbacked No57c49.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4953353.1%283 W · 250 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No50c46$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.063,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No63c43.07$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.828,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes37c42.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6724434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158218.3%15 W · 67 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid+12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No56c35.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.682,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes47c33.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.887949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No61c31.75$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4814745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad71…05cdbacked Yes48c31.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6f5…870bbacked No60c30.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…c147backed No66c30.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6dc…71a6backed No50c29.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.932416.7%4 W · 20 L-6.6wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No65c29.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2157264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No80c28.96$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8141760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No63c26.23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.762,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No58c25.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.942,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.751,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No52c24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.521,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes50c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes51c23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7343842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No51c22.05$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7630168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No51c20.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No54c19.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1511249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c19.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No74c19.46$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.11,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c18.65$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.464,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3271464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.