Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9131e4acd0c2316a42fdb8ef75e92afb469b78822fdd88e1e412495508583e3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes | 4c | 1,237$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 47c | 1,205$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.13 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…8188backed Yes | 3c | 708.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +359.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 13c | 665.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.11 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 648.72$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 608$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 7c | 606.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 16c | 591.79$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 527.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 55c | 413.56$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.28 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 327.28$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 313.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 32c | 299.98$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 15c | 265.65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 43c | 236.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 227.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked Yes | 11c | 225.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 42c | 224.87$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 214.51$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 33c | 213.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 50c | 161.82$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.63 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 154.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 10c | 151.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 15c | 149.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 136.72$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 130.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…5430backed Yes | 49c | 130$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 129.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 20c | 125.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 123.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 122.84$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked Yes | 47c | 120.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 120.02$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 119.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 44c | 114.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 41c | 110.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4686…329ebacked No | 50c | 100.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 52c | 100.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 62c | 94.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 44c | 94.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 90.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1886…b41dbacked No | 51c | 89.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 49c | 82.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 37c | 75.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 21c | 74.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 70.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 67.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 62.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 48c | 55.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 49c | 52.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 47c | 50.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…8948backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…71d5backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 43.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 37c | 42.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 47c | 33.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 61c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad71…05cdbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f5…870bbacked No | 60c | 30.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…c147backed No | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed No | 50c | 29.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 29.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 80c | 28.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 58c | 25.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 50c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 51c | 22.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 51c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed No | 54c | 19.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 74c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 18.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.