TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes45c4,198$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,869.689544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes30c1,406$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.0143238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes31c1,218$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.21,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes31c833.75$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.3941331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c779$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.725,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes36c612.5$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.616237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c562.64$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.394,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes48c535.85$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes28c421$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8745130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c414.81$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.277,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c401.08$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes42c369.01$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.242,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c353.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No70c333.3$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.641,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No69c327.29$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.411,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes63c316$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.64,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes31c299.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c290.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.063,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c95…8188backed No45c279.59$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.359122%20 W · 71 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+359.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c276$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.945,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No54c262.78$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.362,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes46c255.34$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.934067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c235.5$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.115,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No64c225$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8256543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No60c216.11$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4274926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f25…5490backed Yes70c215.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.234247.6%20 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No64c206.13$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.822,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6019148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c195.83$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.461,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes47c191.92$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.041,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes19c180.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes32c174.28$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No57c170$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No77c169.88$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.715131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes48c167.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No50c163.86$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.761145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes27c162.7$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.653,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No70c152.32$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.612,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x696f…8f04backed Yes20c151.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.064124.4%10 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbc0…1843backed No79c150$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7414372%103 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes50c149.98$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.691,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No78c142.32$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3948149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes46c133.86$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.713051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No59c132.08$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.153,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No65c128.69$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.41,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes51c128.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes15c126.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.832,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes48c124.9$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No71c120.19$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.3128456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes38c120$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.092,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.138515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes39c117$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.019239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes49c116.88$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes43c113.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c113.37$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked Yes54c111.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605354.7%29 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes44c109.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6328441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3cca…17e5backed Yes53c108.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.513461.8%21 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes9c107.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.198,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes36c102.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.774,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes54c101.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5525344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1104…1f70backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3714151.8%73 W · 68 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed No58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed No50c97$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.69536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes46c94.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0511343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No60c94.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.262,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No61c92.26$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6455855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c91$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.679,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes47c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4228649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No64c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9888650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes29c89.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.354052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f7…f6c5backed Yes60c88.43$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No61c88.21$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.232,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No64c86.7$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.572,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes40c85.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes34c82.31$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.942,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3046240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes38c80.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.48949.4%44 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1789661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes34c78.53$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9345236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes40c77.77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c76.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c75.37$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.392,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e97…7773backed No68c73.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5712271.3%87 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes26c73.21$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.223,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No79c72.21$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.225,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes21c71.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes41c69.39$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.215152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No60c66.66$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8761752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No49c61.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0925049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8de…e8a1backed Yes71c60.34$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.61520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No67c57.43$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.722,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes61c56.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.382,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x410f…57febacked Yes33c55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.153318.2%6 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes34c54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2266758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No54c53.05$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.592,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No59c52.31$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5141760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes30c52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4513531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.