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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,243

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes70c3,707$2,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.641,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes72c2,894$2,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.1989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes44c2,288$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.4320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No51c1,692$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.954,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes43c1,364$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.7543238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No36c1,182$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.514,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes16c1,002$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.3438515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c976.6$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes25c970.82$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.961,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked No37c853.29$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes65c843.86$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.4312147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No51c673.98$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.113,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No24c601.17$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.52,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes64c559.39$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.537832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes25c559.06$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.7141331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes7c553.08$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.074,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e26…7f2bbacked Yes65c429.13$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.151735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes10c399.83$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.9474926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No54c332.25$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.771,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c324.19$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.327,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No33c321.14$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.946,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7166…6922backed No30c307.75$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.932437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff3e…953fbacked Yes80c305.95$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.124139%16 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c296.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.775,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No34c293.65$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.181,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c276$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.25,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No43c272.01$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.7999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes42c267.25$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.736237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9819…fe16backed Yes60c208.29$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.297949.4%39 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No76c208.24$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.782,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c204$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.324,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb90b…ca12backed Yes69c201.25$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.573056.7%17 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes54c198.17$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.351,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3221…f1bebacked Yes49c197.53$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.595354.7%29 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes77c197.26$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.651,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes22c186.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.024,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No50c185.53$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.932,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c178$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.55,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes79c177.58$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.152,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c175$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.593,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes31c157.68$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2529835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes65c153.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.511747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes56c152.83$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8325344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No35c133.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.632,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No41c133.08$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.882,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No39c130.17$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3721…3abebacked No31c130.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.738134.6%28 W · 53 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06de…cf4cbacked Yes74c128.06$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.752650%13 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No59c126.63$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.881,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes39c125.56$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.122,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf57d…f322backed Yes57c123.9$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.925519.2%49 W · 206 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No38c120.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1328456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No45c119.06$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.442,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes25c116.62$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2885330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce3b…0b8fbacked Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30988.9%8 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick73cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No51c96.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6755855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No48c90$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3788650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No66c87.81$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No38c82.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.561752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f7…f6c5backed Yes67c82.42$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.541060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes20c80$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9411343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No67c74.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes51c71.01$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.531,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae42…9235backed Yes68c70.1$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.191631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6528649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes26c69.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.38252.4%43 W · 39 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…65d5backed No30c67.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes61c66.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.081,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No74c61.38$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.532,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No33c60.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2813051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4cd…368ebacked Yes59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.781442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No47c58.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.62,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No64c55.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1848149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ce3…31b5backed Yes37c54.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.559536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes32c51.86$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.191,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes67c51.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3231124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes72c51.76$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.332,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cca…17e5backed Yes60c51.42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.383461.8%21 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No47c50.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4211038.2%42 W · 68 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.211,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No38c46.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.872,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes47c46.01$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3223241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes36c45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8143441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes63c44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4422746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0101…172ebacked Yes70c43.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked No70c41.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4728441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No51c41.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1841760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed Yes64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.534052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes31c39.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5619148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No62c39.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.452,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes79c38.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0810463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes70c36.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1121651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8023…cfd4backed No53c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.047338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes73c34$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1261365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd39…1beabacked Yes68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.271266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883d…75b5backed Yes67c31.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No41c27.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.