Fifa International · resolved market
Argentina vs. Egypt: Second half draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9264f2c25beca086472f5d2a5db7c4e775a8a83915604b81c8a27fa58b3f3f6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,187
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,187 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 1,722$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.23 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 18c | 1,550$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 753 | 35.6%268 W · 485 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 21c | 937.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…218ebacked Yes | 16c | 834.73$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 660.49$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 32c | 556.22$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.67 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…044abacked Yes | 29c | 555.94$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 462.37$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 71c | 330.8$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.31 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 20c | 277.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 76c | 265.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 71c | 256.25$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.31 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 75c | 254.72$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 22c | 171$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d39…a150backed Yes | 7c | 167.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 73c | 127.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…da0bbacked Yes | 32c | 125.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 115.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 59c | 115.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked No | 46c | 113.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 669 | 32.1%215 W · 454 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 18.1%15 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 95.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…8153backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…19f5backed Yes | 27c | 64.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +248.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…137ebacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 71c | 55.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 233 | 63.5%148 W · 85 L | +19.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e196backed Yes | 32c | 43.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 172 | 29.1%50 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 75c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 350 | 35.7%125 W · 225 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Yes | 28c | 36.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 149 | 55%82 W · 67 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 69c | 27.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…50bbbacked No | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,135 | 40.2%456 W · 679 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 344 | 38.4%132 W · 212 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 65c | 17.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Argentina vs. Egypt: Second half draw?this page
- Argentina to win the second half?Yes won
- Egypt to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.