Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x929bb3a1924d4c4e3ff17beb9ba37f4a6aa56b0acaad1ea70fde0fea5f671f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 38c | 1,279$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.05 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 58c | 407.89$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 353.97$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 343.78$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.78 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 43c | 305.56$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 217$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.61 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 189.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 153.69$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 60c | 101.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 94.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 48c | 92.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 85.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…46a8backed Yes | 43c | 80.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 71.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 65.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 55c | 60.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 58.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 29c | 57.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 54.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 54c | 42.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 52c | 39.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 37.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 45c | 36.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 42c | 36.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 35.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 44c | 34.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 60c | 33.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 33.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 61c | 33.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 28.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…16b9backed Yes | 55c | 27.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked Yes | 49c | 25.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked Yes | 43c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 23.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…238dbacked Yes | 57c | 22.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 20.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…83e8backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad3f…4ae9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on August 7?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on August 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 7?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.