MLB · resolved market
Padres vs. Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92a612b70ad1c83d32885d5399a700273c6c5feca85afb435852763c3430f09b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rockiesof Padres, Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5fb…84b5backed Rockies | 54c | 26,023$14,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,001.86 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Rockies | 26c | 14,350$3,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,557.07 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Padres | 52c | 11,334$5,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,877.72 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Padres | 38c | 9,426$3,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.84 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Padres | 75c | 8,506$6,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,368.94 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa78d…e8cbbacked Padres | 1c | 8,502$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Padres | 72c | 6,820$4,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,910.22 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Rockies | 29c | 5,937$1,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,213.84 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Padres | 24c | 4,358$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.61 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Padres | 41c | 3,529$1,437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Padres | 73c | 3,254$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.49 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Padres | 71c | 2,843$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.95 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Padres | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Padres | 45c | 1,985$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.76 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Rockies | 28c | 1,968$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.96 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Padres | 73c | 1,408$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.84 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Padres | 73c | 1,393$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.48 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Padres | 37c | 1,390$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.66 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Padres | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…a0e7backed Padres | 72c | 1,378$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.85 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Rockies | 25c | 973.99$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.49 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Padres | 74c | 966.99$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.57 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Rockies | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Padres | 74c | 775.01$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.76 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Rockies | 28c | 774.75$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.78 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Padres | 11c | 721.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Padres | 73c | 700$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Padres | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Padres | 40c | 669.26$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.41 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Padres | 75c | 666.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…292dbacked Padres | 73c | 650$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f19…d4f3backed Rockies | 27c | 650$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Padres | 72c | 416.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Padres | 72c | 361.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Padres | 24c | 341.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Rockies | 26c | 320.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.24 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Padres | 19c | 299.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Rockies | 27c | 299.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Padres | 5c | 280$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce9…7a2cbacked Padres | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 206 | 45.1%93 W · 113 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Padres | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rockies | 62c | 232.5$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Padres | 54c | 212$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Rockies | 26c | 167$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Padres | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c21cbacked Rockies | 27c | 145.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Padres | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069c…96e4backed Padres | 15c | 135.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…0dadbacked Padres | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Padres | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Padres | 74c | 128.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Rockies | 51c | 104.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Padres | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb254…8935backed Rockies | 56c | 92.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Padres | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d5…37e6backed Padres | 75c | 77.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…b3aebacked Rockies | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Rockies | 59c | 76.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Padres | 32c | 74.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…437cbacked Rockies | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…add3backed Padres | 41c | 72.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…5878backed Padres | 74c | 71.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Rockies | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…5126backed Padres | 74c | 59.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Rockies | 27c | 53.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…3091backed Padres | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Padres | 74c | 51.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Padres | 73c | 42.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Padres | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 160 | 55.6%89 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Padres | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Padres | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Padres | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…ba16backed Padres | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked Padres | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Padres | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…fec6backed Padres | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…a44bbacked Padres | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed Padres | 74c | 17.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae8…b079backed Padres | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45f1…8994backed Padres | 74c | 15.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c7…ac9fbacked Padres | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked Padres | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.