TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-07?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$594,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $594,489 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes41c208,033$85,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85,269.6910553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No59c44,648$26,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,305.682941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No59c44,425$26,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,214.254740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No59c29,452$17,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,972.3369851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No53c28,634$15,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,536.413,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No59c24,250$14,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,943.053145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed No59c24,017$14,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,846.974456.8%25 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No59c21,686$12,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,891.182951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Yes42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,399.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No59c19,344$11,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,931.045549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x759c…5f4bbacked No60c19,259$11,556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,703.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Yes40c19,208$7,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,683.24938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No59c13,405$7,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,495.89955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes31c11,001$3,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,366.333244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed Yes43c10,000$4,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2752356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed No59c9,997$5,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,098.774658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes41c7,427$3,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,037.4633945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No59c7,287$4,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.821,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No60c7,246$4,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,899.561060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed No59c6,960$4,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,853.61855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes80c6,297$5,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,037.243762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Yes39c6,294$2,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4762931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed No59c6,003$3,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Yes41c6,000$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4605653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed No60c5,209$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,083.834264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe64f…7d71backed No59c5,121$3,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No49c5,026$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,582.5775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb425…c80bbacked Yes41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes41c5,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.986058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No48c4,905$2,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,546.381,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed No60c4,760$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9041957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Yes42c4,167$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Yes42c4,000$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6602661.5%16 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b1c…6535backed No59c4,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.981637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2b…34e4backed No59c3,920$2,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,607.25100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Yes41c3,659$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed No60c3,075$1,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.6753645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6e…2a01backed No60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked No59c2,695$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.951346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed No59c2,500$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02530054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No59c2,453$1,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.542948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No58c1,775$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$745.3834144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Yes73c1,725$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.0120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No58c1,704$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.071,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No73c1,588$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.6378248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae7a…5657backed Yes40c1,504$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Yes20c1,502$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2981145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick22cpaid+155.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes40c1,275$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.934547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes43c1,270$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.0212064.2%77 W · 43 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No72c1,201$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.9822332.3%72 W · 151 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked No59c1,186$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No58c1,130$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.0416060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes41c1,090$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.857639.5%30 W · 46 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb4…48bebacked Yes73c1,068$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No75c1,005$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.4827138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a6…afa6backed Yes41c970.7$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1a…30d8backed Yes32c943.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a08…7eb3backed Yes8c855.54$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed No60c840$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.313461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No59c826.59$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.0238748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Yes39c807.81$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.061540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Yes41c800$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.922646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked No59c763$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.4717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Yes41c732.51$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d4…7d90backed Yes43c697.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No59c665.94$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.8362452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No60c643$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.256547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No71c613.65$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9124541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No47c535.15$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.9819139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No57c531.53$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.028224.4%20 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Yes41c487.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006129.5%18 W · 43 L-7.1wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked No60c483.61$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.619252.2%48 W · 44 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb7b…1476backed Yes42c476.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd733…b175backed Yes41c450$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.411369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+60.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked No59c447.6$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7219446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes38c422.74$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.645030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No65c406.27$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.329476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed No59c400$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Yes32c383.36$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6617652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked No79c378.46$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.461770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…5286backed Yes41c370$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.73246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9192…92acbacked No59c341.3$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.12785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick66cpaid+42.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe500…4b37backed Yes43c325.58$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes78c313.25$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.053265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c20…8521backed Yes40c309.39$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes16c306$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11413129.8%39 W · 92 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No23c300$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305623.2%13 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca38…720fbacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb4…d481backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203959%23 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Yes41c292.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d44…2f97backed Yes27c283.74$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.28862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd711…749cbacked No59c268.05$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Yes75c266.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005250%26 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fb4…a6b5backed No60c256.32$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a6…7971backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b44…21c2backed No60c246.87$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+118.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc7c…958ebacked Yes5c245$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.053020%6 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.