TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,377
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,969

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,377 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes44c2,292$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.751,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c1,853$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.534,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes1c1,745$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes16c1,142$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.322,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes54c747.73$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.25,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No62c623.76$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.442,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f10…9d99backed Yes51c611.48$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.811764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c478.08$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.3810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes50c437.01$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.8314646.6%68 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No57c392$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+22.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No56c292.17$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.752,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No41c262.17$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.724,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…3925backed Yes50c233.13$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.574427.3%12 W · 32 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-40.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No61c232.14$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.995,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes47c224.21$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2364446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No74c220.67$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes60c217.27$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1728324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes28c180$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No73c176.06$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.18,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c169$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.682,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No47c168.63$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No48c167.22$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.958,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes53c161.66$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.41,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No60c160$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes33c155.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.071,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c155$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.214,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c144$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.646,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes27c139.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.763,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes25c126.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c124.5$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.139,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No40c123.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6541760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c120$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.685,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No43c109.53$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6963538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes40c105.17$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.093,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes40c105.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0994552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes27c104.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.821,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No44c102.46$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.374,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes60c102.45$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.889545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5515529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4342547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4417255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No34c98.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4275546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No38c92.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes51c87.62$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.731,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes14c76.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.412,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes49c76.11$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No57c75.8$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.683,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No40c73.7$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.982,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No42c73.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.981,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes59c71.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6822645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No67c71.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.577555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51dd…4053backed No67c71.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.540352.4%211 W · 192 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No49c70.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6457948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No71c64.71$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7123666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes52c60.64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.431,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes56c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.356048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes68c59.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404362.8%27 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No74c58.15$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.121,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.597152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.587629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.516148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.521950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3340535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebed…04c2backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.755939%23 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked No41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.524442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.141,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c16…d262backed No52c47.91$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.917757.1%44 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes36c45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.225935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed No57c45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3518254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No48c44.68$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.334,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x167e…0f16backed Yes23c44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.128361.4%51 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4d9…af28backed Yes23c43.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.089635.4%34 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x357a…88dfbacked Yes70c40.8$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed No65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1429443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7552828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes38c39.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes37c38.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3327248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No43c38.34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes36c36.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2427130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7419…594abacked Yes28c36.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.197925.3%20 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes62c34.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.844945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3d…a3b8backed Yes58c34.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bc…c1b8backed No74c33.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.886061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed No31c32.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No47c32.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.052,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No72c29.73$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.322,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5ab…8e21backed Yes70c29.66$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.843562.9%22 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick71cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes52c25.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No41c25.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.872,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe558…0ca2backed No44c25.16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.972450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x891a…1d79backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No45c24.22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3217858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No53c23.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0453855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No72c23.17$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.472,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe128…ccb4backed Yes57c22.81$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No45c22.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.482,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.