Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93638a28eae586917b3297876482171a0d4b50dfc85f770c5fb13b3766181e66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 44c | 2,292$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 1,853$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.53 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,745$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,142$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 54c | 747.73$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.2 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 623.76$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.44 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f10…9d99backed Yes | 51c | 611.48$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 478.08$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 50c | 437.01$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.83 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 57c | 392$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 292.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.75 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 262.17$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 50c | 233.13$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 232.14$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 224.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 220.67$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 60c | 217.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 176.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 169$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 168.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 167.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 53c | 161.66$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 60c | 160$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 155.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 144$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 139.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 126.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 124.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 40c | 123.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 120$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 43c | 109.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.69 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 105.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 40c | 105.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 27c | 104.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 102.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 60c | 102.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 34c | 98.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 38c | 92.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 51c | 87.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 14c | 76.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 49c | 76.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 75.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 40c | 73.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 73.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 59c | 71.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 71.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 71.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 49c | 70.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 71c | 64.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 60.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…8faabacked Yes | 68c | 59.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 58.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 52c | 47.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 48c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 23c | 43.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 70c | 40.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 37c | 38.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 38.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 36c | 36.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 28c | 36.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 62c | 34.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…a3b8backed Yes | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 74c | 33.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 31c | 32.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 47c | 32.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 29.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ab…8e21backed Yes | 70c | 29.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 52c | 25.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 25.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed No | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…1d79backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 45c | 24.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 53c | 23.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 23.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 22.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.