Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dafb1fb0254288b4aed6c17b6106c4e70ffdc594d530497ec386a20c55683ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 3,546$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 57c | 2,413$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.86 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 1,464$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 1,026$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 897.58$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.49 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 700$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 61c | 663.89$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.8 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 42c | 538.91$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.46 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 48c | 425.61$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.11 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 65c | 407.55$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.31 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 15c | 382$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 31c | 359.01$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.76 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 346.27$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 75c | 343.1$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 52c | 320$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.29 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 73c | 320$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 75c | 320$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 308.27$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 40c | 292.11$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 257.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.41 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 234.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 222.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 54c | 196.19$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.94 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 180$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 14c | 177.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 164$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.44 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 75c | 160$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 38c | 153$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 152.75$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 151.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 136.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 60c | 136.18$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 80c | 133.91$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 56c | 132.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 126.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 126.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 125.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 123.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 66c | 123.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.49 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 43c | 111.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 110.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.19 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…42c8backed Yes | 41c | 105.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.75 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 102.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes | 32c | 101.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 100.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 57c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 42c | 98.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 91.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 35c | 88.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 22c | 88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…df85backed No | 72c | 87.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 77.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed No | 57c | 75.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 75.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 35c | 67.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 16c | 65.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a51…9c22backed Yes | 32c | 61.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed No | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 60c | 55.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 52c | 52.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ad…5f89backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0ca2backed Yes | 38c | 48.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 45.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 43.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 42.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 63c | 39.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 66c | 38.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 37.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 53c | 37.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 34.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 38c | 34.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 64c | 33.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b4c2backed Yes | 34c | 31.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 42c | 31.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 48c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.