TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,017 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes37c3,546$1,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,216.41,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No57c2,413$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.861,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No28c1,464$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.624,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes40c1,026$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.288,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c897.58$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.491,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No62c700$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4371,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No61c663.89$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.82,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes42c538.91$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.4635325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No48c425.61$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.112,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No65c407.55$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.3156543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No15c382$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.765,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes31c359.01$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.7614452.8%76 W · 68 L+20.6wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+39.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c346.27$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.0110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes75c343.1$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.383594.3%33 W · 2 L+13.8wins+0.40per pick55cpaid+79.9%equal weight76+0.23 edge/pick
0xf9da…f9debacked Yes52c320$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.295993.2%55 W · 4 L+21.7wins+0.37per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight79+0.26 edge/pick
0xeb0f…b951backed Yes73c320$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.484983.7%41 W · 8 L+13.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+59.7%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes75c320$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.63390.9%30 W · 3 L+10.4wins+0.32per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No63c308.27$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.584,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No64c300$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1922,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed Yes40c292.11$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.711883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes38c257.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.4157948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes26c234.61$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.53,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No10c222.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.261,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes44c200$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1122,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6786…c8ffbacked No54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10832440.1%130 W · 194 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x357a…88dfbacked No70c200$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No54c196.19$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.943,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c180$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.229,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No14c177.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.926219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No63c164$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.443,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31de…03ffbacked Yes20c160$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.244991.8%45 W · 4 L+18.2wins+0.37per pick55cpaid+80.1%equal weight77+0.25 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed Yes74c160$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.68176.5%62 W · 19 L+14.7wins+0.18per pick58cpaid+39%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xdcb9…1879backed Yes75c160$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.534393%40 W · 3 L+14.6wins+0.34per pick59cpaid+59.4%equal weight74+0.21 edge/pick
0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes38c153$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.194337.2%16 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes78c152.75$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.366,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No58c151.49$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5941760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c136.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.87,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No60c136.18$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.3777555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No80c133.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0763538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No56c132.42$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.423666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c126.88$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.442,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes40c126.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.251,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes38c125.21$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6380130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes38c123.84$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7820339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No66c123.63$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4928163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes43c111.31$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.311,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes42c110.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1942148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd102…42c8backed Yes41c105.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.86944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes45c105$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7512351.2%63 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No65c102.44$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6d0…1d16backed Yes32c101.78$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.239545.3%43 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No55c100.86$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.082,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No57c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ec…710abacked Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8213545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5658152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes42c98.33$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3426256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c91.07$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.715,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes35c88.37$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.3415051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes22c88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8881848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…df85backed No72c87.26$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4830%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No65c77.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.24,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d82…9e66backed No57c75.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9912046.7%56 W · 64 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c75.58$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.071,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes35c67.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.671,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f3c…ca16backed No61c65.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014934.2%51 W · 98 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes16c65.33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6249854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No60c65$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3913351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a51…9c22backed Yes32c61.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.82250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+54.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No60c59.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.99850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes36c59.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.393,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No60c55.71$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2127248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes20c54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.331,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No52c52.67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.452,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2823941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2914745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3640535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2913351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe558…0ca2backed Yes38c48.36$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.192450%12 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No62c48.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3507…71d7backed No54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2533373%243 W · 90 L+1.1wins0.00per pick73cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes44c45.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.481,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes38c45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.925935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes48c43.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6437144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c42.9$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9518…6c1ebacked No63c39.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910671.7%76 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No66c38.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4555954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes37c37.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.762,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No53c37.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.844,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c34.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5180050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…d659backed Yes38c34.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.627130.6%83 W · 188 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No53c34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.134,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No64c33.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.242,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No62c32.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2087629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf316…b4c2backed Yes34c31.9$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes42c31.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1987…1d94backed Yes48c31.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.538348.2%40 W · 43 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.