TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof Natus Vincere, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$116,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$111,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf559…f462backed TheMongolz57c21,053$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,052.6319055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Natus Vincere46c20,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,20016443.9%72 W · 92 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed TheMongolz54c19,749$10,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,084.4525355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked TheMongolz56c14,220$7,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,256.8222354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6401…f240backed TheMongolz25c11,652$2,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,73935054.6%191 W · 159 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Natus Vincere45c10,302$4,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,595.965,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Natus Vincere43c9,999$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.5747147.3%223 W · 248 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Natus Vincere43c5,000$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15026952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed TheMongolz23c5,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85036645.4%166 W · 200 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Natus Vincere45c4,308$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.3632844.8%147 W · 181 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked TheMongolz54c3,475$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.311361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed TheMongolz55c3,457$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,555.6660853.3%324 W · 284 L+20.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed TheMongolz62c3,165$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.71,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7819…bdb0backed Natus Vincere44c2,635$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.181338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Natus Vincere43c2,532$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,088.8236152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa019…f444backed Natus Vincere44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009643.8%42 W · 54 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e9…67ffbacked Natus Vincere44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8802740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Natus Vincere43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86024746.6%115 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked TheMongolz46c1,930$886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.8516142.9%69 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1448…e868backed Natus Vincere43c1,514$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6517138%27 W · 44 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31c1…bc19backed Natus Vincere35c1,432$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50015962.9%100 W · 59 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Natus Vincere44c1,293$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.552,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64f4…b38ebacked Natus Vincere41c1,223$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed Natus Vincere43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007337%27 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked TheMongolz56c1,111$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.841,14449.4%565 W · 579 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed TheMongolz58c1,100$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45955941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb875…ac87backed TheMongolz55c1,036$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.3616949.1%83 W · 86 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dcd…5ef7backed Natus Vincere44c1,035$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.430153.8%162 W · 139 L-1.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Natus Vincere44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44014847.3%70 W · 78 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Natus Vincere44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44012344.7%55 W · 68 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked Natus Vincere48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.935847.5%170 W · 188 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Natus Vincere43c920.04$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.6232344.3%143 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Natus Vincere45c909.09$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.0959755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked TheMongolz56c900$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4031…c848backed Natus Vincere44c900$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.9511135.1%39 W · 72 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2de2…11a9backed TheMongolz57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.19837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed TheMongolz57c799.98$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.994459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked TheMongolz57c751$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.935567.3%37 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.13per pick55cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed TheMongolz6c743.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.724822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Natus Vincere47c731.74$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.511,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked TheMongolz6c690.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.9711221.4%24 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked TheMongolz57c550$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed TheMongolz58c550$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23112055%66 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b62…9035backed Natus Vincere74c490$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.552231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed TheMongolz57c485.4$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.7229851.3%153 W · 145 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f58…d93abacked TheMongolz28c478.2$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.126749.3%33 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked TheMongolz26c466.36$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.41,65032.7%540 W · 1,110 L-49.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6055…5fdebacked TheMongolz58c431.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed TheMongolz57c421.05$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.052934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.1wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-36.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe2cd…3897backed TheMongolz29c415.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.922744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc57…2b3cbacked TheMongolz57c389.47$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4714659.6%87 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed TheMongolz62c366.83$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.721,36566.3%905 W · 460 L+76.1wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7cc…644ebacked TheMongolz55c351.38$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.12450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked TheMongolz60c339.57$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.92,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…f0fbbacked TheMongolz55c333$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed TheMongolz57c300.96$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.4199148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12378639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbaf…2a03backed Natus Vincere40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011341.6%47 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba50…ad0bbacked TheMongolz57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12976748%368 W · 399 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed Natus Vincere38c299.26$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.721,03839.9%414 W · 624 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe41c…afabbacked TheMongolz56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8649651.2%254 W · 242 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da2…22b6backed Natus Vincere48c264.69$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12638945.8%178 W · 211 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x91a2…e415backed Natus Vincere42c264$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.887234.7%25 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Natus Vincere43c256$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0827753.8%149 W · 128 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec4…8bc9backed TheMongolz57c252$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.367163.4%45 W · 26 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x197f…7cc5backed TheMongolz62c241.94$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.944740.4%19 W · 28 L-6.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Natus Vincere44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040050.8%203 W · 197 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad1…b4c5backed Natus Vincere44c222.2$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.777352.1%38 W · 35 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Natus Vincere44c222$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6821247.6%101 W · 111 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Natus Vincere43c200.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1448948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Natus Vincere44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked TheMongolz55c181.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8158254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed TheMongolz56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.573250%16 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed TheMongolz56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5731761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked TheMongolz57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4431451.6%162 W · 152 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed TheMongolz57c175.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4317251.2%88 W · 84 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Natus Vincere44c170.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.916465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7955…ce08backed TheMongolz60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.672948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65fa…4c6abacked TheMongolz62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2911564.3%74 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Natus Vincere40c150.83$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3333340.2%134 W · 199 L+13.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere43c150$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.59954.5%54 W · 45 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked TheMongolz55c150$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.513240.9%54 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked TheMongolz55c144.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2522838.6%88 W · 140 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Natus Vincere43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6019147.1%90 W · 101 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb42…176ebacked Natus Vincere44c136.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed TheMongolz61c135.92$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.3568659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed TheMongolz57c132.09$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.81,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c47…2e55backed Natus Vincere39c128.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024047.9%115 W · 125 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Natus Vincere42c123.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527843.6%34 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1ec…9c6dbacked Natus Vincere43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507255.6%40 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4425…6e3bbacked Natus Vincere44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick36cpaid-59.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b2c…f0d6backed Natus Vincere62c112.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked TheMongolz56c103.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.542339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed TheMongolz58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4515347.1%72 W · 81 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d45…1c86backed TheMongolz57c101.75$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.754151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Natus Vincere49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked TheMongolz53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4772353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Natus Vincere43c99.99$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4322455.8%125 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8059…5addbacked TheMongolz58c96.3$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.898662.8%54 W · 32 L+11.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xbc06…7f72backed Natus Vincere44c89.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.183438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.