TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-13.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Michigan Wolverinesof Michigan Wolverines, Saint Louis Billikens
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$339,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,703 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b3f…3446backed Michigan Wolverines44c98,204$43,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,993.985367.9%36 W · 17 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Saint Louis Billikens56c68,164$38,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,171.5984147.4%399 W · 442 L-13.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec1…057cbacked Saint Louis Billikens57c8,690$4,957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,957.128957.3%51 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Saint Louis Billikens55c7,355$4,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,049.0312,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Saint Louis Billikens56c6,985$3,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.552,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Saint Louis Billikens56c6,028$3,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,375.721,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Saint Louis Billikens56c5,949$3,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,346.2918744.9%84 W · 103 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Saint Louis Billikens56c5,593$3,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,131.8950548.9%247 W · 258 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines44c4,332$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.715,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Michigan Wolverines44c4,087$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.7816053.8%86 W · 74 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Saint Louis Billikens56c2,974$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.5122349.3%110 W · 113 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Michigan Wolverines43c2,480$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.685,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Michigan Wolverines50c2,242$1,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.762,01250%1,006 W · 1,006 L+22.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed Saint Louis Billikens51c1,512$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.268444%37 W · 47 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Saint Louis Billikens51c1,320$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.41333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdf6…d7f7backed Saint Louis Billikens57c1,272$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.255552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed Michigan Wolverines49c999.76$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.888748.3%42 W · 45 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Saint Louis Billikens51c970$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.717742.9%76 W · 101 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a89…8e52backed Saint Louis Billikens57c870.85$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.712958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Michigan Wolverines48c785.24$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.3214447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Saint Louis Billikens55c645.1$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.835246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9121…bd6cbacked Michigan Wolverines48c582.82$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.216136.1%22 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Michigan Wolverines45c543.53$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.221,23444.8%553 W · 681 L-32.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Saint Louis Billikens55c500$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2755966.1%39 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33f…e413backed Michigan Wolverines44c500$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28037246.2%172 W · 200 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Saint Louis Billikens56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28091848.9%449 W · 469 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Saint Louis Billikens56c446$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.768937.1%33 W · 56 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c83…cf0abacked Michigan Wolverines49c411.76$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21013343.6%58 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Saint Louis Billikens58c396.59$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0217051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bda…4282backed Michigan Wolverines51c388.47$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.223743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Michigan Wolverines47c352.22$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.6753635.6%191 W · 345 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Michigan Wolverines47c339.59$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.774,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Saint Louis Billikens51c330.42$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.513655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1480…6e8dbacked Saint Louis Billikens58c323.97$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5431448.7%153 W · 161 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Michigan Wolverines49c303.44$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7614325.9%37 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-28.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Michigan Wolverines48c288.52$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.7852843.6%230 W · 298 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Michigan Wolverines53c263.66$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.6944146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5871…0defbacked Michigan Wolverines46c211.54$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.234348.8%21 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+19%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Saint Louis Billikens49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9842934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Saint Louis Billikens56c198.27$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0362451.1%319 W · 305 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Michigan Wolverines43c177.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.411,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03a…d7c4backed Saint Louis Billikens54c177.62$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.24562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Saint Louis Billikens53c158.47$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9946246.5%215 W · 247 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Michigan Wolverines50c147.56$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2113445.5%61 W · 73 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Saint Louis Billikens50c134.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.223,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1748…5e9ebacked Michigan Wolverines49c130.18$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.391266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4a9…4d64backed Michigan Wolverines49c130.17$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.397231.9%23 W · 49 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Saint Louis Billikens51c129.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8150745.2%229 W · 278 L+0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc15…3a2ebacked Saint Louis Billikens56c127.39$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.344546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Saint Louis Billikens49c120.92$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6526945.7%123 W · 146 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2841…3c5abacked Michigan Wolverines42c103.5$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.794334.9%15 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Michigan Wolverines47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.55352.8%28 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Michigan Wolverines48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Michigan Wolverines47c94.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6164647.5%307 W · 339 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Saint Louis Billikens56c94.21$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7629650.7%150 W · 146 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e79…0658backed Saint Louis Billikens54c92.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.782532%8 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Michigan Wolverines58c90.41$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9734343.4%149 W · 194 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03eb…47b0backed Michigan Wolverines45c80.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.447160.6%43 W · 28 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x313d…6f98backed Saint Louis Billikens61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.86767.2%45 W · 22 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3437…1e5ebacked Saint Louis Billikens51c77.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.659952.5%52 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Saint Louis Billikens56c52.36$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4233058.2%192 W · 138 L+24.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Saint Louis Billikens50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d9…bad0backed Saint Louis Billikens58c49.57$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.752352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ee…373ebacked Saint Louis Billikens60c49.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7513456.7%76 W · 58 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…a219backed Saint Louis Billikens56c46.03$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.787542.7%32 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Saint Louis Billikens52c43.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6457655%317 W · 259 L+17.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd425…603ebacked Michigan Wolverines47c42.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5913560%81 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4921…5238backed Michigan Wolverines47c42.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.592657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x927f…b921backed Saint Louis Billikens57c41.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.837146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Saint Louis Billikens56c39.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2113356.4%75 W · 58 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Saint Louis Billikens54c36.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8913457.5%77 W · 57 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Saint Louis Billikens55c36.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.994,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Michigan Wolverines46c31.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.841,24916.4%205 W · 1,044 L-189.4wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x589a…d5e6backed Michigan Wolverines44c29.55$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98cf…b8eabacked Saint Louis Billikens57c29.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.76119.1%1 W · 10 L-4.9wins-0.45per pick54cpaid-82.8%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Michigan Wolverines45c25.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0132246.6%150 W · 172 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Michigan Wolverines47c21.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.616459.4%38 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…4145backed Michigan Wolverines47c21.31$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.33551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc55d…405abacked Saint Louis Billikens56c20.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.322860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e09…0901backed Saint Louis Billikens57c17.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.083441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x524f…bcbdbacked Saint Louis Billikens57c17.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.041118.2%2 W · 9 L-4.1wins-0.37per pick55cpaid-68.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.