NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9401d68ee33fd71a30ec077bb60408880956865a0202598be0f23e873749303c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Kings, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Kings | 36c | 1,231$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.25 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Ducks | 64c | 904.02$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.68 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Kings | 36c | 648.8$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.57 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Ducks | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.46 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Ducks | 66c | 363.64$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 37c | 307.47$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 50c | 304$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ducks | 64c | 258.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ducks | 47c | 247.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.17 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Ducks | 64c | 240$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Kings | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Kings | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Kings | 39c | 185.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Ducks | 55c | 180.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Kings | 54c | 160$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Ducks | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Ducks | 79c | 143$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 277 | 39.4%109 W · 168 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Kings | 37c | 140.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Kings | 45c | 127.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Ducks | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Ducks | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…0523backed Ducks | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 62c | 82.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Ducks | 66c | 77.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ducks | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Kings | 44c | 67.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Kings | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Ducks | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…eda7backed Ducks | 64c | 38.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Kings | 62c | 37.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ducks | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Ducks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kings | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Ducks | 63c | 27.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Ducks | 62c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. KingsDucks won
- Ducks vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.