CS2 · resolved market
BLAST Bounty: Passion UA vs. Spirit
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x940e6dee1c3908f52316a29dcd59f23b0d1682235432437b6bd08ef33abf9773
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Passion UA, Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Passion UA | 10c | 29,722$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,869.57 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Passion UA | 11c | 15,394$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.27 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Passion UA | 5c | 12,284$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.12 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked Passion UA | 26c | 5,388$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.83 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Passion UA | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Passion UA | 9c | 4,198$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.17 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Passion UA | 31c | 2,552$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.8 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Passion UA | 22c | 2,389$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.8 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +14.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Passion UA | 9c | 1,834$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.15 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Passion UA | 7c | 1,724$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Passion UA | 2c | 1,509$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Passion UA | 8c | 1,500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 463 | 40.8%189 W · 274 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…120dbacked Spirit | 74c | 1,136$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.08 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Passion UA | 10c | 1,016$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Spirit | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Passion UA | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed Passion UA | 4c | 995$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Passion UA | 4c | 883.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4293…220ebacked Passion UA | 24c | 441.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Spirit | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76c0…d8bebacked Passion UA | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Passion UA | 31c | 391.41$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Passion UA | 15c | 380.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Passion UA | 13c | 343.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Spirit | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked Passion UA | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6a…e915backed Passion UA | 43c | 231.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed Passion UA | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Passion UA | 7c | 180.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…a00ebacked Passion UA | 13c | 162.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Passion UA | 13c | 146.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f6…79d2backed Spirit | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 377 | 52%196 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…bd6fbacked Passion UA | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…0b56backed Passion UA | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Spirit | 78c | 96.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…67f0backed Passion UA | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Spirit | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb18f…41eabacked Spirit | 71c | 39.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3f…d2e2backed Passion UA | 34c | 34.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…713cbacked Spirit | 77c | 19.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…f9c9backed Spirit | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.