Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941226a1d4f475e85bcda2c1f5f3fa611881743a1c8595df70419151bc686c70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 4c | 1,360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.79 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 51c | 540$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc952…baafbacked No | 4c | 535.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 76c | 473.4$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 387.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 374.19$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 12c | 339.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 63c | 274.09$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.9 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 40c | 257.69$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.29 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 25c | 241.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 231.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 80c | 202.49$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 20c | 165.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 68c | 154.76$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 44c | 149.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffd…1e7cbacked Yes | 73c | 138.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 54c | 135.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 10c | 133.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…c6adbacked Yes | 80c | 125.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 121.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…e57ebacked No | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 72c | 79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5593…732ebacked Yes | 72c | 67.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…ec95backed No | 60c | 66.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 61c | 65.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…74f9backed No | 44c | 61.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked No | 39c | 55.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 59c | 49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 62c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 34c | 35.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…2873backed No | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 24.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…5f61backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.