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Tennis · resolved market

Istanbul 2: Kristina Penickova vs Aliona Falei

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Aliona Faleiof Kristina Penickova, Aliona Falei
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,967
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$147,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,967 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kristina Penickova27c10,916$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.4594140.6%382 W · 559 L-31.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7568…2ce1backed Kristina Penickova35c5,797$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009052.2%47 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Kristina Penickova19c5,097$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.4358232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kristina Penickova21c4,932$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.2711,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Aliona Falei70c3,416$2,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.969,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Aliona Falei75c3,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7502166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Aliona Falei77c2,420$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.0246453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Kristina Penickova21c2,361$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.985,32528.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L-21.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Aliona Falei70c1,731$1,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.584,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kristina Penickova34c1,583$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.346,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x710c…78eabacked Kristina Penickova32c1,563$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,04058.2%605 W · 435 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc323…0171backed Aliona Falei74c1,381$1,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35931653.2%168 W · 148 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kristina Penickova20c1,300$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2602,44451.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Kristina Penickova19c1,294$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.982,20436.9%813 W · 1,391 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Aliona Falei74c1,250$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32575543.4%328 W · 427 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Kristina Penickova29c1,245$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.464,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e1c…4db8backed Aliona Falei68c1,171$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.121478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Kristina Penickova26c998.3$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.562,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Kristina Penickova21c886.58$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9632131.2%100 W · 221 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Kristina Penickova29c882.54$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7339451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Kristina Penickova31c822.82$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.618022.5%18 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Aliona Falei64c807.71$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.7836540.8%149 W · 216 L-13.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Kristina Penickova14c800$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.869,37444.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L-244.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Aliona Falei72c673.08$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.15,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc627…47b2backed Aliona Falei80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12539256.6%222 W · 170 L-11.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfffa…17c5backed Aliona Falei69c606.31$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2236545.2%165 W · 200 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Kristina Penickova20c600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1207,10739.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L-17.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked Aliona Falei70c530$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1592352.5%485 W · 438 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…7f0cbacked Kristina Penickova19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010152.5%53 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4159…beedbacked Aliona Falei79c515.04$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.166457.8%37 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5689…ac69backed Kristina Penickova32c514.92$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-19.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Kristina Penickova18c470.48$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6443359.6%258 W · 175 L+26.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Kristina Penickova19c451.3$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7526841.8%112 W · 156 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Kristina Penickova37c413.47$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.614,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Kristina Penickova21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.412,73534%931 W · 1,804 L-13.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Kristina Penickova19c382.59$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.121,58042.3%668 W · 912 L+18.6wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e7…84e9backed Kristina Penickova19c336.28$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3522638.9%88 W · 138 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Kristina Penickova26c291.95$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.756,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Kristina Penickova19c279.58$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1210232.4%33 W · 69 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Aliona Falei76c278.69$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.116,57446.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L-45.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kristina Penickova20c273.96$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.988,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c54…bebbbacked Kristina Penickova18c266.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9721246.2%98 W · 114 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6485…a265backed Aliona Falei78c261$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.422,32652.1%1,213 W · 1,113 L+85.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Kristina Penickova18c247$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4656848.9%278 W · 290 L+23.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Aliona Falei78c241.81$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.724,34152.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L+63.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Aliona Falei73c238$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.071,47643.8%647 W · 829 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Kristina Penickova20c233.75$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.755841.4%24 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Kristina Penickova5c204.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.472,88739.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L-84.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Kristina Penickova32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3443…64e9backed Aliona Falei72c184.53$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6717171.3%122 W · 49 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe2…697abacked Kristina Penickova27c181.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4912029.2%35 W · 85 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Aliona Falei78c179.85$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8586470%605 W · 259 L+43.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Kristina Penickova20c160.66$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1351545.8%236 W · 279 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc28f…d02bbacked Kristina Penickova34c152.74$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.936233.9%21 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa84d…bebdbacked Aliona Falei67c138.58$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7334748.1%167 W · 180 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Aliona Falei75c137.6$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.841,96043.8%858 W · 1,102 L-20.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95d…d369backed Aliona Falei63c135.85$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8917050.6%86 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Aliona Falei76c121.28$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8853539.3%210 W · 325 L+37.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5251…be02backed Kristina Penickova25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Aliona Falei80c110.34$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.562,06946.7%966 W · 1,103 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2002…a75ebacked Aliona Falei80c107.57$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6633043.9%145 W · 185 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4d…a427backed Kristina Penickova22c100.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5212848.4%62 W · 66 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67a1…1c91backed Aliona Falei60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4020360.1%122 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab7…6978backed Kristina Penickova22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12b8…ff48backed Kristina Penickova28c99.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1710955%60 W · 49 L-0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Kristina Penickova19c98.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.623,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Kristina Penickova32c90$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.82,77653.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L+69.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Kristina Penickova23c83.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.171,47535.2%519 W · 956 L-14.1wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Kristina Penickova34c79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5656153.7%301 W · 260 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed Aliona Falei66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.764740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed Kristina Penickova34c74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9127550.2%138 W · 137 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Aliona Falei63c73.67$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.523,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…5dd9backed Kristina Penickova40c71.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.493363.6%21 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8920…9c0cbacked Aliona Falei69c67.49$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8629347.4%139 W · 154 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…206cbacked Kristina Penickova22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.985637.7%323 W · 533 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Aliona Falei77c59$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4639751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d59…b22cbacked Kristina Penickova26c58.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1911650%58 W · 58 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Kristina Penickova30c54.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3726746.1%123 W · 144 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7629…226cbacked Aliona Falei80c50.02$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1023581.7%192 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick80cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77e6…0ae1backed Kristina Penickova25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016164%103 W · 58 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Aliona Falei79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.972,08754.1%1,130 W · 957 L+64.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68f0…c32dbacked Aliona Falei80c37.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.54959.2%29 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476e…cfb9backed Aliona Falei69c37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.4735060.9%213 W · 137 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99f4…335fbacked Aliona Falei78c33.03$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2724474.2%181 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed Aliona Falei65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.774254.8%23 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Aliona Falei75c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61,06242%446 W · 616 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Aliona Falei65c29.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3649251.6%254 W · 238 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Aliona Falei69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9988935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x205d…2ad2backed Aliona Falei78c26.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9322366.8%149 W · 74 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Aliona Falei78c25.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.712,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Aliona Falei78c25.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.565,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Aliona Falei78c23.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.0880051%408 W · 392 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked Aliona Falei77c21.5$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.851,17952.8%623 W · 556 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed Aliona Falei79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.373951.7%382 W · 357 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x061a…5a89backed Aliona Falei51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.852157%297 W · 224 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f85…83a6backed Aliona Falei64c18.76$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.763363.6%21 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99d4…7c0dbacked Aliona Falei72c15.35$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3135461.3%217 W · 137 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62f…1781backed Aliona Falei80c13.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.7326664.7%172 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Aliona Falei76c13.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1659050.5%298 W · 292 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Aliona Falei80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.56347.6%30 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.