Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x951ddcae1939533e6fe8b75e95ce7367a508f78dffb046e4022b486339368354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.98 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…df55backed Over | 47c | 1,787$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 52c | 1,287$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.3 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…e620backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 51c | 626.91$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.33 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Over | 50c | 579.18$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Under | 53c | 439.78$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4c…6d64backed Over | 55c | 398.53$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.34 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 45c | 299.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.22 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 257.21$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 234$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under | 21c | 198.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 194.35$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.12 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Over | 51c | 190.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd9…fb31backed Over | 48c | 139.58$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…c02bbacked Over | 57c | 127.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Under | 57c | 121.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Over | 47c | 110.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Over | 79c | 106.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over | 43c | 98.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.02 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Under | 13c | 79.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 240 | 34.2%82 W · 158 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 42c | 72.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Over | 47c | 69.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Under | 48c | 62.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 78c | 52.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 59c | 42.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a16…6d55backed Under | 45c | 39.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3465…bbdbbacked Over | 51c | 39.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…61f5backed Over | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 37.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Over | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Under | 53c | 35.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…95febacked Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8430…3961backed Under | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 303 | 56.4%171 W · 132 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 46c | 22.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 170 | 40.6%69 W · 101 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…fb3dbacked Under | 54c | 21.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…f1ccbacked Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Under | 59c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.