TailMyPicks
Market

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Team Yandex, Nigma Galaxy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,588

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3308…f04bbacked Nigma Galaxy59c10,312$6,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,192.4535850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f05…b18ebacked Team Yandex36c7,371$2,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.583435.3%12 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa048…f2b5backed Nigma Galaxy64c7,031$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,531.251752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3170…c6a0backed Nigma Galaxy63c6,093$3,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.72045%9 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Yandex37c5,534$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,051.9171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex37c5,366$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Yandex1c3,800$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3840534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Team Yandex38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1404156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Nigma Galaxy63c1,638$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.154058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Team Yandex50c1,316$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.2818745.5%85 W · 102 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Yandex53c965.5$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.122842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Yandex34c952.38$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8137745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nigma Galaxy62c844.42$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.2360542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Team Yandex24c835.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.068536.5%31 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Team Yandex36c814.09$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0718830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed Nigma Galaxy64c639.07$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.8115353.6%82 W · 71 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd799…326cbacked Team Yandex38c600$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2285038%19 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x86ee…ef1fbacked Team Yandex54c557.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006870.6%48 W · 20 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Nigma Galaxy61c540.58$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4850353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Team Yandex39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19512148.8%59 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Yandex31c490$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9048…d351backed Nigma Galaxy63c477.84$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.849640.6%39 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa521…d609backed Nigma Galaxy67c399.99$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1311060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Nigma Galaxy63c356.25$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.3521353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Yandex43c308$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.31,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…d99abacked Team Yandex50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15038649.5%191 W · 195 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Nigma Galaxy64c289.62$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.482751.9%14 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Nigma Galaxy64c273.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.7418844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9a1…d1eebacked Team Yandex37c246.3$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.131315.4%2 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-73%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Nigma Galaxy54c226.14$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7371342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9deb…536fbacked Nigma Galaxy64c213.84$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.63540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0f…3656backed Nigma Galaxy64c213.49$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.49875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Nigma Galaxy64c212.81$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6c…035bbacked Team Yandex51c205.02$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.568057.5%46 W · 34 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team Yandex33c199.7$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.924246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd16…502ebacked Nigma Galaxy63c188.89$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.891450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7c8…e573backed Nigma Galaxy62c177.42$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.421643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4af…6a1abacked Team Yandex37c177.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c82…7312backed Team Yandex37c175.24$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.841258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked Team Yandex38c171.05$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6561449.5%304 W · 310 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Team Yandex37c162.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa55a…75a6backed Nigma Galaxy64c150.25$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.09650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Team Yandex38c149.47$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.817448.9%85 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf36e…f91cbacked Team Yandex37c135.35$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.084443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Nigma Galaxy63c104.51$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7542146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Yandex39c95.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3713148.1%63 W · 68 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…980abacked Team Yandex37c85.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.552240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…fbcabacked Team Yandex37c81.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9144…a412backed Nigma Galaxy63c80.78$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec33…fad3backed Nigma Galaxy63c79.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.521650%8 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3743…7bc1backed Nigma Galaxy64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.133644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed Team Yandex37c78.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8841248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Yandex35c77.04$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8678516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2a7e…9dc6backed Nigma Galaxy63c75.18$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9314058.6%82 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Nigma Galaxy62c58.43$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.222738.3%87 W · 140 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Team Yandex32c52.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921328.2%60 W · 153 L-16.0wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x60f1…2f40backed Team Yandex37c51.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90a7…5ac0backed Team Yandex37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.514252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e0a…07fdbacked Team Yandex39c48.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924349%119 W · 124 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2553…59f7backed Nigma Galaxy64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.881181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+32.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfce8…2686backed Nigma Galaxy64c46.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8814566.2%96 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Yandex37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.831126%81 W · 230 L-17.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae94…b241backed Nigma Galaxy50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203672.2%26 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5522…c807backed Nigma Galaxy66c39.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.71457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Team Yandex38c39.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1529656.1%166 W · 130 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed Nigma Galaxy64c39.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.061266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5d2…0678backed Nigma Galaxy54c36.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.911275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+35.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Team Yandex37c31.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.758445.2%38 W · 46 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Nigma Galaxy72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.443860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team Yandex37c29.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec2…1c42backed Nigma Galaxy64c28.13$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.131573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf8bc…d806backed Nigma Galaxy64c21.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade0…df20backed Nigma Galaxy63c19.05$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x202b…bd32backed Nigma Galaxy64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…4e8abacked Nigma Galaxy64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.