TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,935 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f30…3aeebacked Yes61c1,607$977 inLost-$977.354450%22 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No38c1,250$472 inWon+$777.579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No45c670.1$304 inWon+$365.821,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes59c536.62$317 inLost-$317.0524038.3%92 W · 148 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87fa…12d0backed No47c464.4$218 inWon+$246.1315357.5%88 W · 65 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No39c405.06$158 inWon+$247.133,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes53c330$175 inLost-$174.923850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No26c214.57$57 inWon+$157.9120741.1%85 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…ce0abacked Yes75c197.76$148 inLost-$148.391872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes56c178.92$100 inLost-$100.0131540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf809…b391backed Yes53c143.26$76 inLost-$75.822832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No41c136.54$56 inWon+$80.824,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f0c…51dbbacked Yes57c125.44$72 inLost-$72.124928.6%14 W · 35 L-8.7wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x47b8…76f2backed No43c112.3$48 inWon+$64.012352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06e0…e850backed Yes62c79.26$49 inLost-$48.851040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3811…1a5dbacked Yes60c65.07$39 inLost-$39.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed No39c40$16 inWon+$24.445544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb98d…c479backed No37c38.78$14 inWon+$24.437441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc347…7b28backed Yes54c27.01$15 inLost-$14.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.