NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd52ab696a0a1a9c0b860581eb124d228ddd4f1aca65f89fbd3edb3ba0c353937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,493
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 56c | 1,735$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.66 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 41c | 1,177$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.91 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked No | 51c | 1,054$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.78 | 392 | 65.1%255 W · 137 L | +31.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 43c | 482.55$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.31 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b4…1483backed Yes | 50c | 388.89$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked No | 57c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 99 | 75.8%75 W · 24 L | +16.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed No | 58c | 205.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…ada3backed No | 52c | 103.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 153 | 62.1%95 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 46c | 98.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…a366backed Yes | 42c | 96.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 50c | 89.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked No | 51c | 88.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe4…fa32backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d6bebacked Yes | 42c | 57.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.34per pick | 41cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Yes | 55c | 53.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b1…dddabacked Yes | 42c | 45.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741b…4a79backed No | 58c | 36.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…ab6abacked Yes | 49c | 32.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 55c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…c202backed Yes | 50c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc347…7b28backed Yes | 66c | 20.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Cavaliers vs. LakersLakers won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.