NBA · resolved market
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061ade5f05d8b30de60df62d162841fec83b21ad8f95d8b0875d50abaec64435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82ba…0a52backed Yes | 63c | 4,742$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,754.94 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…4b48backed No | 37c | 3,578$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.77 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 35c | 2,076$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.87 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Yes | 66c | 1,488$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.26 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 67c | 407.07$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 207 | 41.1%85 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed No | 33c | 372.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 314 | 55.1%173 W · 141 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked No | 37c | 262$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…d6f0backed No | 37c | 253.03$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 37c | 248.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed No | 37c | 248.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…4a2ebacked Yes | 79c | 199.52$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c7…de4bbacked Yes | 67c | 179.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 35c | 149.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…42a8backed No | 34c | 139.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…a5d6backed Yes | 64c | 129.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…c307backed Yes | 63c | 109.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…0722backed Yes | 60c | 99.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…57febacked Yes | 56c | 86.49$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Yes | 65c | 48.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e2…388ebacked Yes | 63c | 40.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed No | 45c | 34.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 328 | 66.5%218 W · 110 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044d…e6f7backed Yes | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…0050backed No | 34c | 31.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191b…824abacked Yes | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed No | 42c | 29.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 65c | 26.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc268…0b96backed Yes | 56c | 26.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Yes | 65c | 24.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…c085backed Yes | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…9eccbacked Yes | 64c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5this page
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-0.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Cavaliers vs. LakersLakers won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Lakers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 20.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jarrett Allen: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 6.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.