MLB · resolved market
Orioles vs. Angels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95d796ceac9c03745e22bae8913c5a97ae1fc48f9738f54ca3b1067c9116f6ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Angelsof Orioles, Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Orioles | 57c | 7,418$4,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,228.39 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Orioles | 57c | 5,000$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Angels | 45c | 3,914$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.56 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Angels | 45c | 3,627$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.41 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Angels | 43c | 3,515$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.55 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles | 57c | 3,000$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.98 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Angels | 65c | 2,612$1,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.74 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Angels | 68c | 1,938$1,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.21 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked Orioles | 57c | 1,500$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf619…4efebacked Angels | 43c | 1,490$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Orioles | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Orioles | 15c | 1,250$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Angels | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Angels | 65c | 1,000$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.69 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Orioles | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.88 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Angels | 43c | 879.57$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.87 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Orioles | 8c | 839.84$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Angels | 43c | 820.83$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.94 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Angels | 43c | 671.86$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.96 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Orioles | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 205 | 23.4%48 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Angels | 43c | 545.07$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Angels | 44c | 500$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.95 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Angels | 43c | 403.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.77 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Orioles | 56c | 299.98$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Orioles | 20c | 286$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…eb96backed Angels | 65c | 250$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Angels | 44c | 226.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Angels | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Angels | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Orioles | 30c | 180.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…fd74backed Orioles | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed Angels | 69c | 144.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Angels | 42c | 139.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Angels | 43c | 119.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Orioles | 57c | 114$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Angels | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Angels | 43c | 106$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Angels | 48c | 102.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4441…7480backed Angels | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd065…93e8backed Angels | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Orioles | 56c | 90.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Angels | 68c | 87.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…5e6fbacked Orioles | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…4356backed Angels | 43c | 74.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Angels | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…2a51backed Orioles | 57c | 67.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Orioles | 23c | 63.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Orioles | 46c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2449…3799backed Orioles | 58c | 55.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf03…1d5fbacked Angels | 44c | 54.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Orioles | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Orioles | 31c | 48.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…3563backed Angels | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6016…f58ebacked Orioles | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2306…bec3backed Angels | 43c | 39.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…576fbacked Angels | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…3584backed Orioles | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…3a83backed Angels | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Orioles | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Angels | 43c | 30.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Angels | 43c | 30.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Angels | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Orioles | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 1,055 | 50.3%531 W · 524 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…f649backed Orioles | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0201…7fc6backed Angels | 43c | 24.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…fc47backed Orioles | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Orioles | 58c | 17.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Angels | 80c | 16.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.