TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,980

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,702 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1041…f452backed Over49c2,047$1,003 inLost-$1,00326949.1%132 W · 137 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under52c1,912$1,000 inWon+$911.951,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Over50c1,400$700 inLost-$70051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over51c1,100$561 inLost-$56146145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under49c1,099$538 inWon+$560.482,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c710$360 inWon+$350.318,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Under51c699.48$357 inWon+$342.7517953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Under51c680.32$347 inWon+$333.3647856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe77f…8793backed Over47c641.28$301 inLost-$301.44531.1%14 W · 31 L-7.3wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-22.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe952…bde4backed Over47c409.28$192 inLost-$192.363461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under53c381$202 inWon+$179.0771547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under50c323.5$162 inWon+$161.751,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over43c100$43 inLost-$4380744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Under55c81.82$45 inWon+$36.8250351.5%259 W · 244 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over45c48.38$22 inLost-$21.773,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb821…5cddbacked Under55c28.05$15 inWon+$12.626965.2%45 W · 24 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under52c25.04$13 inWon+$12.119,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over52c24.68$13 inLost-$12.733,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Under54c22$12 inWon+$10.1219350.3%97 W · 96 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Under50c20.4$10 inWon+$10.211555.7%64 W · 51 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.