NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x266977252f36eeea5ab225bde23169ddc26c5fa5bdddb46fd5117da2f6ec34aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 40c | 6,381$2,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.08 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 60c | 4,869$2,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.05 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…8977backed Under | 56c | 2,000$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.99 | 623 | 47.7%297 W · 326 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 1,132$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Under | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 45c | 743.22$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.45 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ecf5backed Under | 65c | 538.46$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.46 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 35c | 384$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under | 57c | 320.17$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…3cdebacked Over | 40c | 234.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Over | 45c | 177.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9164…f32bbacked Under | 57c | 173.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Under | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 63c | 103.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 43c | 100.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 62c | 97.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4137…586cbacked Under | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 470 | 43.8%206 W · 264 L | -22.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x131e…3343backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…a6babacked Under | 56c | 71.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 35c | 66.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 64c | 62.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 57c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 57c | 51.75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 47.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 59c | 30.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…4d94backed Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5this page
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.