NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa552d59dd232966f77aba49203afdd28810815a9ebfc7a471218bac8421cec7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Magic, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Hornets | 54c | 57,365$31,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,172.26 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 45c | 19,331$8,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,752.73 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 45c | 14,117$6,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,352.65 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Magic | 47c | 12,000$5,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,640 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Hornets | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 48c | 7,205$3,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,485.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Magic | 45c | 5,691$2,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,561 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Magic | 47c | 4,842$2,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270.04 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Hornets | 52c | 4,800$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,303.99 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Magic | 48c | 4,228$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,029.55 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -11.0wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets | 51c | 3,202$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.98 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Magic | 48c | 2,865$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.2 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Magic | 48c | 2,053$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.28 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 46c | 1,100$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…f3e6backed Hornets | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.52 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +7.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19a0…ac39backed Magic | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hornets | 48c | 707.73$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.02 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Magic | 52c | 692.31$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Magic | 48c | 687.5$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Hornets | 49c | 356.15$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.64 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Magic | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Magic | 46c | 340$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Magic | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…5f41backed Magic | 48c | 202.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.32 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Magic | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Magic | 48c | 140$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Magic | 47c | 114$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Magic | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Hornets | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Hornets | 53c | 85.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 131 | 53.4%70 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Magic | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Hornets | 52c | 76.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Magic | 48c | 75.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Hornets | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Magic | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Magic | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Magic | 49c | 40.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Hornets | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)this page
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.