NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbe8bacade6d542b2db1efe0ede0c54d811cfe75d0ab16f07b779097e2a8239a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 8,821$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,804.05 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 57c | 7,389$4,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.56 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 18c | 6,385$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.38 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…9ad4backed Under | 52c | 1,917$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.25 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed Under | 57c | 1,712$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.25 | 382 | 53.4%204 W · 178 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 43c | 1,452$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.76 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3666…d3efbacked Under | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Under | 55c | 907.27$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.27 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 890.98$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.84 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…88c8backed Over | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Over | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…9bcabacked Over | 9c | 525.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 44c | 477.27$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 406.15$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…9b55backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Over | 48c | 345.83$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 324 | 50.6%164 W · 160 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under | 55c | 331.81$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.31 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 271.7$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e9…5112backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 217 | 49.3%107 W · 110 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 52c | 193.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.72 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 56c | 148$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 47c | 143.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Over | 48c | 104.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb391…8939backed Under | 55c | 91.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 44c | 84.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 62c | 56.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 37c | 41.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911d…2438backed Under | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 48c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Over | 48c | 26.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 53c | 24.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 46c | 21.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5this page
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.