NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d9b25042612bcbedd4250d6880537758305aafca5717dea2fb9729390d68bbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 51c | 50,000$25,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,699.97 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 52c | 29,999$15,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,399.32 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 21,013$10,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,716.8 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 48c | 8,333$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,333.33 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 7,874$3,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,937 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 6,937$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,537.83 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 48c | 5,820$2,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,812.61 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…4a51backed Over | 47c | 5,277$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480 | 130 | 63.8%83 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…64c5backed Over | 47c | 5,168$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.73 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Under | 48c | 4,375$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,728$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.9 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 2,244$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.54 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 49c | 2,082$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.49 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 799.99$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 48c | 689.58$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.58 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Over | 49c | 591.37$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.44 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 52c | 570$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 515$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.51 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 199 | 58.3%116 W · 83 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 52c | 415$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.8 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 51c | 329.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.69 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 295$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a0…35b6backed Over | 50c | 235.18$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 47c | 234.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 47c | 224.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…70c7backed Over | 50c | 97.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 89.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 48c | 84.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 50c | 79.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Over | 52c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 71.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 64.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Over | 48c | 27.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Over | 52c | 21.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 21.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf282…8f0dbacked Under | 52c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5this page
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.