NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab015a4010d377f9844e9bdab51b9e5dad741a30abde8b0073972ab737ab0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hornetsof Magic, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Magic | 54c | 150,128$80,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,390.63 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -11.0wins | -0.28per pick | 49cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Hornets | 46c | 46,903$21,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,226.43 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 47c | 36,526$17,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,491.86 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Hornets | 47c | 26,883$12,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,275.41 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hornets | 47c | 17,650$8,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,431 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 46c | 16,784$7,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,032.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Magic | 52c | 13,851$7,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,202.4 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Hornets | 48c | 7,210$3,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.2 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Magic | 54c | 6,770$3,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,655.99 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Hornets | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Hornets | 47c | 3,813$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.62 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…07abbacked Hornets | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 173 | 56.1%97 W · 76 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hornets | 47c | 1,876$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.28 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Hornets | 48c | 1,800$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Hornets | 48c | 1,150$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Hornets | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hornets | 46c | 599.08$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Hornets | 49c | 538$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.32 | 193 | 50.3%97 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Magic | 7c | 537.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Hornets | 46c | 350$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 323 | 46.4%150 W · 173 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Magic | 53c | 275.62$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Hornets | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab8…b5a6backed Hornets | 47c | 210.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…dd35backed Magic | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Hornets | 47c | 189.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Magic | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Hornets | 47c | 178.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Hornets | 69c | 173$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 473 | 49%232 W · 241 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Hornets | 47c | 168$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Hornets | 47c | 148.82$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Hornets | 48c | 141.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 762 | 50.4%384 W · 378 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Hornets | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…5d26backed Hornets | 46c | 107.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Magic | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…f427backed Magic | 53c | 94.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Magic | 54c | 68.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Hornets | 46c | 52.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 251 | 44.2%111 W · 140 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Hornets | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hornets | 47c | 51.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Hornets | 47c | 50.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Hornets | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…b14cbacked Hornets | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Hornets | 47c | 49.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Hornets | 46c | 39.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Hornets | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Hornets | 49c | 32.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Hornets | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Hornets | 46c | 30.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e91…3e2abacked Hornets | 48c | 28.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Magic | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Hornets | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…0fa8backed Magic | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hornets | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)this page
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.