NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50203d271cac3dc617a608c32b98b3e20900356561499334c7c11f0bdeba1752
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 9,312$4,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,243.93 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 5,676$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,648.46 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 55c | 4,525$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,036.25 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…602ebacked Over | 50c | 4,300$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…411bbacked Under | 50c | 4,150$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac5…88c8backed Under | 50c | 4,050$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…8cd9backed Under | 50c | 3,360$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4990…d6a1backed Over | 50c | 3,300$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c64…9b55backed Over | 50c | 3,300$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9174…cd59backed Under | 50c | 3,060$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3666…d3efbacked Under | 50c | 2,400$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…f88ebacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…3d87backed Over | 50c | 1,700$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 54c | 1,540$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.52 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ac…720dbacked Over | 50c | 1,267$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…98e9backed Over | 50c | 1,153$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61e…ff85backed Over | 50c | 1,095$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…7edbbacked Over | 50c | 1,061$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4e…b306backed Over | 50c | 936$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c34…68d4backed Over | 50c | 908$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 46c | 831$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.26 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 37c | 765.72$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.31 | 263 | 36.5%96 W · 167 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 63c | 634.92$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.92 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…b704backed Under | 59c | 461.38$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 56c | 421.09$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.28 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…308cbacked Over | 49c | 385.41$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed Under | 53c | 344.33$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.84 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 326.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Under | 62c | 320.75$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.75 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 44c | 299.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 53c | 236.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ca…0d75backed Over | 50c | 201.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 50c | 186.78$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.39 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4582…00d0backed Under | 59c | 177.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc594…679ebacked Over | 49c | 159.78$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 44c | 156.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f94…2413backed Over | 49c | 128.92$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 118.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe760…973abacked Under | 54c | 118.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…ebb7backed Over | 49c | 117.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…b3ffbacked Over | 49c | 114.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8dd…93a7backed Over | 49c | 112.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce43…1a0abacked Under | 51c | 106.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…54b1backed Under | 51c | 103.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…5336backed Under | 53c | 101.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfe…f81abacked Under | 59c | 90.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…8b71backed Under | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Over | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 165 | 49.7%82 W · 83 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…058dbacked Under | 54c | 62.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…ce2cbacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 57.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…0a40backed Under | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…c052backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…19a0backed Over | 41c | 39.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 260 | 44.6%116 W · 144 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bd…6169backed Over | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Over | 41c | 29.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -10.0wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 41c | 28.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 228.5this page
- Anthony Black: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Hornets vs. MagicHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 227.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Under won
- Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Under won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 11.5No won
- LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Hornets won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Hornets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.