TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof Nongshim RedForce, DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$157,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,336 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 299 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nongshim RedForce44c7,415$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,250.3545033.8%152 W · 298 L-35.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked Nongshim RedForce70c6,963$4,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,865.0978162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8061…a32bbacked DRX71c6,442$4,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.023378.8%26 W · 7 L+6.5wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+23.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed DRX30c6,130$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,283.8715942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed DRX62c5,824$3,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.544060%24 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked DRX28c3,834$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,742.6217353.8%93 W · 80 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed DRX49c3,612$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,843.4233346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked DRX34c3,133$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.828955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50f…3ad3backed Nongshim RedForce72c2,980$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,145.592045%9 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed Nongshim RedForce33c2,962$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$989.6422047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Nongshim RedForce56c2,890$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.718638.4%33 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Nongshim RedForce64c2,523$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,619.9516442.1%69 W · 95 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Nongshim RedForce72c2,454$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.822653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec15…665fbacked Nongshim RedForce3c2,383$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.534027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed Nongshim RedForce3c2,355$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.076418.8%12 W · 52 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed DRX33c2,245$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.7541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Nongshim RedForce69c2,149$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.5342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfaa…db37backed Nongshim RedForce3c2,081$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.521330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x935f…94b8backed Nongshim RedForce3c2,078$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.571030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked DRX30c2,037$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.6961035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked DRX29c1,957$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.792552%13 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Nongshim RedForce43c1,927$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.8541537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked DRX29c1,905$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.3515431.2%48 W · 106 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked DRX30c1,606$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.152454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcab…b9bbbacked Nongshim RedForce67c1,597$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.714245.2%19 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Nongshim RedForce67c1,576$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.9917448.3%84 W · 90 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bdd…1b11backed DRX29c1,566$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.516346%29 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Nongshim RedForce69c1,554$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.3754751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Nongshim RedForce66c1,484$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.611152.3%58 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Nongshim RedForce33c1,396$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.611546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…5b2abacked Nongshim RedForce1c1,292$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Nongshim RedForce33c1,263$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.8460022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01f…ab4abacked DRX28c1,212$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.9525444.9%114 W · 140 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nongshim RedForce60c1,208$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.3923146.8%108 W · 123 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nongshim RedForce59c1,147$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.6970251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26e3…0b75backed DRX27c1,111$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.0810551.4%54 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95bb…288dbacked Nongshim RedForce1c1,031$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.595944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Nongshim RedForce48c1,002$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.464544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Nongshim RedForce62c897.54$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9935142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc93…1489backed Nongshim RedForce71c855.62$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9876…69f7backed Nongshim RedForce67c843.44$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.513444.1%15 W · 19 L-4.5wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nongshim RedForce70c825.59$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.9113642.6%58 W · 78 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Nongshim RedForce73c808.6$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.284252.4%22 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x338c…1b33backed DRX51c803.83$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.2510956%61 W · 48 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked DRX31c789.89$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.0229733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Nongshim RedForce66c783.68$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.2321055.2%116 W · 94 L+10.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked DRX47c768.74$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.6455152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Nongshim RedForce71c742$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.411741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f38…af70backed Nongshim RedForce71c694.13$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.831163.6%7 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c55…7ef8backed Nongshim RedForce70c670.4$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.93560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+13.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed DRX36c651.29$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.9521257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x988d…9899backed DRX30c621.45$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.129644.8%43 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked DRX62c602.52$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.288950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Nongshim RedForce50c550.94$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.957749.4%38 W · 39 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Nongshim RedForce35c539.28$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.671,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x757f…311dbacked Nongshim RedForce65c523.21$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.192040%8 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed DRX79c523.21$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.141,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked DRX31c509.31$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.934738.3%18 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed DRX30c499.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.9226050%130 W · 130 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8f…5259backed Nongshim RedForce71c483.34$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.172065%13 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked DRX30c482.4$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.656863.2%43 W · 25 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+34.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xba58…6d74backed Nongshim RedForce72c476.76$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.825555.7%142 W · 113 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4cd…e2abbacked Nongshim RedForce44c468.86$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.26048.3%29 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed DRX29c465.77$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.723447%110 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked DRX38c431.34$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.531,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ab2…b321backed Nongshim RedForce70c419.12$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.38742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82d…7199backed Nongshim RedForce10c412.82$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6560%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed DRX31c402.3$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.6823847.9%114 W · 124 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Nongshim RedForce47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18814645.2%66 W · 80 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nongshim RedForce40c398.22$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.851,37647.1%648 W · 728 L+10.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8e…3e14backed DRX29c374$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9442…d97bbacked DRX55c371.97$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+58.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e60…b1ecbacked DRX29c367$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Nongshim RedForce50c362.49$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5234739.8%138 W · 209 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Nongshim RedForce35c353.1$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.317537.7%66 W · 109 L-14.5wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked Nongshim RedForce70c350.71$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.55561.8%34 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+22%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Nongshim RedForce46c348.9$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.341822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-57.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Nongshim RedForce71c345.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.65540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-28.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked DRX64c333.13$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.9288844.4%394 W · 494 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Nongshim RedForce70c332.33$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.636762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked DRX28c328.73$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.6815343.8%67 W · 86 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed DRX27c322.21$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.211637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb74f…030abacked Nongshim RedForce71c314.43$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.251631.3%5 W · 11 L-4.8wins-0.30per pick61cpaid-51.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Nongshim RedForce47c313.87$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5124751.8%128 W · 119 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb126…9848backed DRX30c309.75$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.832828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-44.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked Nongshim RedForce71c308.54$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.062356.5%13 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Nongshim RedForce70c303.24$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.2728541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked DRX29c301.58$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1212850%64 W · 64 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed DRX29c300$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Nongshim RedForce72c296.93$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.792556%14 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick64cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7418…3f31backed Nongshim RedForce71c296.21$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick68cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e0…457fbacked Nongshim RedForce72c295.94$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.084959.2%29 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6b0…fdbcbacked Nongshim RedForce70c289.21$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Nongshim RedForce70c289.2$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.442619.2%5 W · 21 L-8.1wins-0.31per pick50cpaid-66.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x465b…41c3backed DRX55c286.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.013135.5%11 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd913…ce91backed DRX29c285.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38ce…5431backed Nongshim RedForce45c281.19$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.824560%27 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed DRX31c278.3$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.032445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Nongshim RedForce72c278$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.163966.7%26 W · 13 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Nongshim RedForce49c274$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.427433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.