Earnings · resolved market
Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9783cbef5f906cb95c5522f7971b17f52f3963134d0ed6b6daf7d5d30deb644e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 76c | 1,651$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 68c | 1,136$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.14 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 22c | 1,109$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.62 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 15c | 984.12$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 13c | 915.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 22c | 296.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 28c | 207.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 26c | 203.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 26c | 189$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 164.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 24c | 148$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed No | 31c | 128$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 23c | 98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 63c | 60.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 75c | 53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…32dfbacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…d8f3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…e637backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0657…2b79backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e8…637abacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x903c…079bbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.