TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen: Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,856

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xddc3…029cbacked Over57c2,500$1,425 inWon+$1,074.982259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+39.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under43c1,975$849 inLost-$849.23,72647%1,750 W · 1,976 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under42c1,516$640 inLost-$639.552,33341.7%972 W · 1,361 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over58c1,224$710 inWon+$514.031,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Over57c277$158 inWon+$119.1111657.8%67 W · 49 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36b3…fc6cbacked Under43c233.26$100 inLost-$100319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Over56c219.96$124 inWon+$95.9697346%448 W · 525 L-4.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Over57c175.43$100 inWon+$75.437245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under38c132.92$51 inLost-$50.514254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under44c110.16$48 inLost-$47.9237043.8%162 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under38c106$40 inLost-$40.2818732.1%60 W · 127 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under43c96.14$41 inLost-$41.3458061.9%359 W · 221 L+22.5wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under43c96.14$41 inLost-$41.3485260.9%519 W · 333 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Under43c80$34 inLost-$34.453564.7%346 W · 189 L+29.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over58c61.69$36 inWon+$26.027750.6%39 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under44c52.14$23 inLost-$22.6979354.2%430 W · 363 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over60c45$27 inWon+$17.8527554.9%151 W · 124 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2440…042dbacked Over62c23.47$15 inWon+$8.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.