Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9963fe9d0eaa6dd99a4f3487c4747bbb06ed6357728b9d15f8f25ea230752c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 59c | 1,200$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.94 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…4d96backed No | 5c | 499.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 439.4$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 43c | 411.21$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.56 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 350.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 44c | 306.37$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.51 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 298.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbb…04febacked No | 60c | 282.78$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 258.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.73 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 57c | 239.06$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.59 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 228$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 65c | 214.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 23c | 205.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 189.9$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 184.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 182.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e320backed Yes | 60c | 165.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 34c | 162.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 57c | 150.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.87 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 54c | 149.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.87 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 47c | 132.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked No | 39c | 132.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 125.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 30c | 120.69$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.67 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 23c | 119.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 117.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 50c | 112.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 70c | 112.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 45c | 110.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 109.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 37c | 109.12$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 46c | 108.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 54c | 108.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b0…56e8backed Yes | 36c | 105.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 105.35$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 50c | 105.13$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48b…6c1ebacked No | 37c | 102.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes | 59c | 102.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 22c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 100.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 60c | 92.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 60c | 91.87$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 37c | 91.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 16c | 89.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 85.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 73.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3642…c2f0backed Yes | 68c | 73.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 68c | 71.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 69.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 35c | 67.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 63.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 34c | 60.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 60.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 59.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 75c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 28c | 56.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 61c | 56.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 44c | 56.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 50.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 67c | 49.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…2cdabacked Yes | 42c | 47.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 46.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ef…4caabacked Yes | 65c | 45.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 67c | 44.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 44.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 55c | 42.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 74c | 42.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 74c | 40.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 49c | 37.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 54c | 35.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes | 33c | 35.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 33.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 58c | 33.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…5ff2backed Yes | 60c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 64c | 32.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…4b3abacked Yes | 63c | 31.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…4e2dbacked Yes | 48c | 31.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 64c | 30.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 61c | 28.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 70c | 24.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.