Earnings · resolved market
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9979a7f3dbc5f6bf479bf9a6477997011a527dec6070e53e5b28a0c8033ac471
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc52f…9a32backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 7c | 6,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 2,824$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.91 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 35c | 1,391$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.87 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed Yes | 64c | 725.33$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 37c | 656.29$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 31c | 417.93$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 400$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 40c | 399.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.32 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 36c | 398.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.42 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 381.18$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 316 | 29.4%93 W · 223 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727f…bdc6backed Yes | 63c | 317.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed Yes | 62c | 279.28$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 224.56$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27d…13fbbacked No | 44c | 219.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 40c | 210.86$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc832…ed2bbacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 36c | 199.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 34c | 194.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.97 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 192.97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3824…0935backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…6ac6backed Yes | 63c | 157.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked Yes | 58c | 157.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 33c | 154.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 39c | 144$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 53c | 143$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 269 | 51.3%138 W · 131 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…c120backed No | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…dcd6backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc43…0305backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…acdabacked No | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb204…6370backed No | 48c | 93.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed No | 44c | 84.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 84.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed Yes | 60c | 82.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…4ff9backed Yes | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a2…9a1fbacked Yes | 63c | 71.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Yes | 57c | 61.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed Yes | 63c | 57.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e9…80c8backed No | 45c | 51.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…7622backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…d53abacked Yes | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…af64backed No | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7479backed Yes | 62c | 48.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a9…a7c7backed Yes | 63c | 46.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 45.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ec…a9dcbacked No | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked Yes | 62c | 34.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…3281backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc531…62a5backed No | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ae…98fabacked No | 46c | 29.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f5…89d1backed Yes | 62c | 22.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc573…cdacbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…1bb6backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…401abacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…5c08backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.