Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99b0c45e47d0eb7b87172cf0b80dc2e329908ffef4861291aaff091a447e4dcd

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $381,880
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $360,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $381,880 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa4cf…3e8cbacked Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Yes	6c	50,344$2,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,967.21	137	42.3%58 W · 79 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes	6c	20,000$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	222	29.7%66 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	7c	14,703$1,078 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,077.78	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	6c	14,152$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.56	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1c…436cbacked Yes	9c	10,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.96	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5952…db2fbacked Yes	6c	8,174$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	118	26.3%31 W · 87 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6639…0e59backed Yes	9c	5,720$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$514.8	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3818…9797backed Yes	13c	5,026$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656	177	51.4%91 W · 86 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x584d…62e0backed Yes	6c	5,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4ae…8eadbacked Yes	5c	4,533$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.66	355	14.4%51 W · 304 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes	6c	3,833$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	502	14.5%73 W · 429 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes	6c	3,433$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa4…9fb6backed Yes	5c	3,432$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.6	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Yes	6c	2,393$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.44	357	19.6%70 W · 287 L	-13.8wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes	4c	2,392$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.69	1,075	45.2%486 W · 589 L	+41.2wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes	5c	2,231$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.56	319	45.1%144 W · 175 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6797…7697backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-3.4wins	-0.23per pick	30cpaid	-84.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc32a…f7ebbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	121	9.1%11 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…4ad6backed Yes	7c	1,988$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.19	300	54%162 W · 138 L	+17.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26f1…6d2fbacked Yes	7c	1,800$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	73	42.5%31 W · 42 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d3a…d724backed Yes	6c	1,667$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	212	27.8%59 W · 153 L	+8.6wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+37.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x929c…fe32backed Yes	12c	1,482$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	290	18.6%54 W · 236 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e97…8ffabacked Yes	5c	1,476$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.43	251	25.1%63 W · 188 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa558…b8e6backed Yes	6c	1,287$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.21	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21df…af60backed Yes	9c	1,262$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.51	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfaa…43e2backed Yes	5c	1,200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	281	34.5%97 W · 184 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a7…4380backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa940…9cffbacked Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes	13c	1,111$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.43	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa425…a8bbbacked Yes	5c	1,010$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.51	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Yes	5c	1,002$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.09	465	46.7%217 W · 248 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4c…5695backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	91	33%30 W · 61 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…5ec8backed Yes	5c	999.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	83	20.5%17 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb964…033ebacked Yes	10c	968.41$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.86	174	42%73 W · 101 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	2c	937.75$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb5…1d5bbacked Yes	7c	919.27$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	-3.3wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54b4…14c0backed Yes	9c	916.84$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.72	101	33.7%34 W · 67 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4bfc…f71dbacked Yes	13c	879.23$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.3	168	27.4%46 W · 122 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfcf…79cfbacked Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf718…c541backed Yes	13c	768.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde7e…564dbacked Yes	1c	750$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	173	29.5%51 W · 122 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc818…1da3backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	135	20%27 W · 108 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1345…8f0bbacked Yes	5c	620$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbf1…d61abacked Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	93	40.9%38 W · 55 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	202	24.3%49 W · 153 L	-5.3wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…7047backed Yes	5c	593.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+112.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…6a1dbacked Yes	6c	592.71$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.56	335	10.1%34 W · 301 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d4d…fba6backed Yes	13c	576.92$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	142	39.4%56 W · 86 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9785…2419backed Yes	6c	561.67$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Yes	8c	535.78$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.86	508	33.3%169 W · 339 L	-35.7wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	197	23.4%46 W · 151 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	454	21.4%97 W · 357 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d3…9364backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	119	34.5%41 W · 78 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfae3…c20ebacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	113	7.1%8 W · 105 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+90.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed9…11f0backed Yes	7c	477.5$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-62%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0c3f…c16abacked Yes	5c	460$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1597…6edebacked Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	470	29.1%137 W · 333 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8af…0550backed Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	356	14.3%51 W · 305 L	-14.3wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d0a…0809backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-6.1wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-19%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd26b…b09fbacked Yes	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	357	14%50 W · 307 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes	3c	366$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	1,354	38.9%527 W · 827 L	-55.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2671…8de4backed Yes	5c	350$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	200	13.5%27 W · 173 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87cb…643abacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	209	42.6%89 W · 120 L	-8.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6faf…71f5backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee4a…ad4cbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	91	12.1%11 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da1…a0d3backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	279	9.7%27 W · 252 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9de…1ba8backed Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+50.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Yes	10c	299.8$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.98	197	50.3%99 W · 98 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977f…0981backed Yes	5c	299.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	143	23.1%33 W · 110 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3561…f1b7backed Yes	6c	274.06$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.74	950	37.5%356 W · 594 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49f7…4871backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	163	35%57 W · 106 L	-9.1wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95bb…ebe2backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes	10c	231.5$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.02	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x594d…4876backed Yes	6c	228.17$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c1…185cbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	485	26.8%130 W · 355 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dbc…30adbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	52	30.8%16 W · 36 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14f4…82ebbacked Yes	10c	187$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f3c…2bc2backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+2.5wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+42.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d50…e2c1backed Yes	6c	170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf951…6ab4backed Yes	11c	165.38$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	36	25%9 W · 27 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc158…9d65backed Yes	9c	133.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	110	12.7%14 W · 96 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf32…9d4bbacked Yes	13c	118.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes	13c	84.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	181	28.2%51 W · 130 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?this page
Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?Yes won
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Bosnia and Herzegovina?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event