Earnings · resolved market
Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99b4f6582fbda0de6ce798a40dbeccf8dc02035d8443659527c8c51fabb9d104
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 78c | 746.83$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.83 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 22c | 699.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 37c | 399.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 306.23$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 34c | 279.47$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 25c | 220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked No | 39c | 210.11$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c06…67b6backed Yes | 50c | 199.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cc…8072backed No | 44c | 189.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 181.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 72c | 177.96$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…d670backed No | 42c | 171.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727f…bdc6backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcb…ff00backed Yes | 65c | 153.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0418…966ebacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed Yes | 76c | 128.71$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 42c | 125$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 9c | 123.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73be…9a59backed No | 51c | 118$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 66c | 97.68$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 39c | 89.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc890…f510backed No | 29c | 87.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…af64backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 65c | 77.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 39c | 73.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 73c | 68.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 38c | 60.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed Yes | 55c | 59.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 70c | 56.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fc…e300backed Yes | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…98ddbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 25c | 49.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…548bbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 67c | 43.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…2f22backed Yes | 70c | 43.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6b…0ad4backed No | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…f957backed Yes | 61c | 40.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked Yes | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 50c | 35.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1772…3281backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…f1bcbacked Yes | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408c…dfa1backed Yes | 78c | 19.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 59c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 60c | 17.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.