Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a413e423b9b20a3027649458bb1dcb5699bed905b0dd26e483e7140e2c9c5c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafb1…1755backed Yes | 0c | 5,396$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 20c | 289.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 27c | 256.25$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 255.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 242.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 28c | 235.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 190.68$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.97 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 181.32$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 167$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 145.22$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 27c | 144.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 31c | 121.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 72c | 119$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 116.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 110.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb567…1575backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 107.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 32c | 103$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 22c | 101.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 101.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 101.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 101.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 98.84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 93.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 38c | 79.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 64c | 78.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 72.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 67.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 68c | 64.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 63.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 32c | 62.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 58.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 56.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 29c | 53.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 53.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…62afbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 67c | 47.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 46.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 45.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 41.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 40c | 39.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 38.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 38.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 31c | 38.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 35c | 38.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 32c | 37.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 37.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 35.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 34c | 32.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…ec4fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 74c | 29.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 35c | 28.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 60c | 25.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 24.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 23.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 64c | 20.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 67c | 18.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 80c | 17.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 65c | 16.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 67c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.