Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x538f17f0b474cd80d2fdf4f929f29dca6331a6bd8a83c6f9cb1abc7ab078b81c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,478$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 455.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 334.23$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…1755backed No | 66c | 318.18$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 316.82$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 309.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 284.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 265$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 37c | 181.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 10c | 177.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 176$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 172.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 34c | 162.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 157$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 149.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 65c | 127$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 42c | 120.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.42 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 38c | 120.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…ef14backed Yes | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 40c | 113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 111.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 70c | 99.66$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3797…efeabacked Yes | 30c | 93.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 93.51$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 37c | 90.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 86.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 32c | 86.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 85.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 66c | 75.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8320…e302backed Yes | 71c | 75.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 73.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 71.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 68.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 63c | 66.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 52.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 47.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 46.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 41c | 45.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 68c | 44.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 32c | 42.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 38.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 35c | 36.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 35.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 34.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 31.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…6f13backed Yes | 70c | 29.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 38c | 28.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 62c | 28.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked No | 62c | 26.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 68c | 26.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 25.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd13d…ec4fbacked No | 42c | 24.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 24.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 24.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 58c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 23.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 23.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 61c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed No | 63c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 62c | 20.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 56c | 19.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 71c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.