WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9aa8c870e4f2e9f4e2864a82849adc54de43244fe8823bbce9ccc2f51e1346f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Connecticut Sunof Los Angeles Sparks, Connecticut Sun
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 5,006$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.58 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Connecticut Sun | 73c | 3,430$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.67 | 552 | 55.1%304 W · 248 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Connecticut Sun | 68c | 1,166$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.11 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Connecticut Sun | 69c | 667.3$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.88 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Los Angeles Sparks | 52c | 655.4$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.1 | 286 | 47.9%137 W · 149 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 392$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 325 | 40.3%131 W · 194 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Connecticut Sun | 73c | 339.66$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Connecticut Sun | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 253$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 269 | 53.2%143 W · 126 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 213.3$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Connecticut Sun | 46c | 165$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 386 | 50.3%194 W · 192 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 47c | 138$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 307 | 34.2%105 W · 202 L | -28.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 35c | 117.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 371 | 41.2%153 W · 218 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Connecticut Sun | 48c | 109.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Connecticut Sun | 53c | 109.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Connecticut Sun | 54c | 103.53$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Connecticut Sun | 61c | 81.07$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 378 | 50%189 W · 189 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf236…2e36backed Los Angeles Sparks | 43c | 75.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Connecticut Sun | 73c | 68.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Sparks | 49c | 64.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 712 | 45.4%323 W · 389 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Connecticut Sun | 65c | 57.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 132 | 56.8%75 W · 57 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…568abacked Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 35.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Los Angeles Sparks | 54c | 35.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Connecticut Sun | 47c | 31.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Connecticut Sun | 51c | 30.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 237 | 46.4%110 W · 127 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Connecticut Sun | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Connecticut Sun | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Connecticut Sun | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Los Angeles Sparks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Connecticut Sun | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Connecticut Sun | 73c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-1.5)this page
- Ariel Atkins: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Brittney Griner: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Brittney Griner: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Erica Wheeler: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Erica Wheeler: Points O/U 8.5No won
- Erica Wheeler: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Erica Wheeler: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 170.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 172.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 173.5Under won
- Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 174.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-2.5)Connecticut Sun won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.