Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b44de141ed23141794fc46d003a631e44942e057eb8d20adf0f22e50f253cf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,200$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.27 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 36c | 505.7$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 26c | 499.98$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 433.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 419.24$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 396.3$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 349.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 78c | 325.54$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.18 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 321.29$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.75 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfc…c4cebacked Yes | 5c | 292.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 22c | 277.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 269.03$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…b3a6backed No | 75c | 255.13$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 11c | 253.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 15c | 243.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 9c | 210.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 72c | 199.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 198.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…2e9fbacked Yes | 27c | 128.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 128$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 16c | 127.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 24c | 124.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 124.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 119.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 19c | 109.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 105.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcc…8d7ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 98.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 22c | 88.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 78.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…a18dbacked Yes | 16c | 71.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 70.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 72c | 69.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 69c | 61.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…68f0backed No | 69c | 61.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed Yes | 34c | 60.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe736…9d9fbacked Yes | 17c | 59.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 27c | 59.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 23c | 57.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 51.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 29c | 51.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 25c | 40.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 75c | 37.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes | 40c | 31.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177b…6e61backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 29.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 79c | 25.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 74c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.