NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 214.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b8f1d01eb105bce48c9186650a8b890ce4fa2117ab9e055b71323a75c64c7ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 11,295$5,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,496.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 51c | 9,050$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,434.31 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 8,895$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,521.41 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 6,351$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,674.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Over | 52c | 5,846$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805.93 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 11c | 3,823$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,404.56 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 48c | 3,113$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.4 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked Over | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 19c | 1,372$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.52 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 15c | 1,046$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.1 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…2638backed Under | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 15c | 716.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.16 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 48c | 575.99$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.72 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 15c | 554$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.56 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 15c | 529.68$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.29 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 8c | 461.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.4 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 407.74$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.92 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 401.72$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Over | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Over | 4c | 383.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.56 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 243.12$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.1 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 46c | 219.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcf…47ddbacked Over | 51c | 218.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 151 | 61.6%93 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 49c | 96.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 20c | 61.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…97d5backed Under | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 53c | 38.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee9…f7acbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…a390backed Under | 47c | 28.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…9ef1backed Under | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 214.5this page
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Pistons vs. NuggetsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.