NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b87abac86eb8aca62a96c94eec6001dca295296b81d28a4d2cceb366ba2039b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 24,892$11,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,699.38 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 8,163$4,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,867.77 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 6,011$3,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,825.17 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 4,080$2,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.3 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Under | 52c | 3,508$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.01 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 4c | 1,779$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Over | 48c | 1,316$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,060$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 996.39$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.66 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…bcb2backed Over | 12c | 559.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 187 | 43.3%81 W · 106 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…ab18backed Over | 49c | 453.66$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.11 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 360$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Over | 10c | 353.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 146 | 36.3%53 W · 93 L | +16.4wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 53c | 352.1$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.61 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Under | 53c | 333.96$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 300$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 47c | 287.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.94 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 11c | 278.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 53c | 212.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 9c | 184$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Over | 14c | 149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…2e1abacked Over | 53c | 123.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Over | 44c | 109$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…ebf0backed Under | 53c | 85.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 75.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 51.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…920fbacked Over | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Over | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Over | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…d337backed Over | 34c | 39.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 45c | 38.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 54c | 35.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Under | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f3…39ccbacked Under | 53c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8d…1a96backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Under | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Under | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Under | 54c | 27.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4422…4284backed Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…7b0bbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 57c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9548backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5this page
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Pistons vs. NuggetsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 214.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 215.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.