NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 215.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4823e1234fd62a36725da8fba75a0ba0e270d75464c48c55b895d4f68c86a60d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,120 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Over | 53c | 6,213$3,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,922.26 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa341…04a3backed Under | 49c | 5,790$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 5,404$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 12c | 4,449$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,915.12 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 9c | 4,400$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000.75 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Over | 49c | 4,082$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,081.63 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,469.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 2,691$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.2 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 49c | 2,245$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 52c | 1,768$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.84 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.09 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 1,347$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.44 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 49c | 1,252$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.15 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 48c | 785.42$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 19c | 560$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Under | 25c | 540.72$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 75c | 486.48$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.19 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 49c | 476$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 447.04$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.44 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 12c | 366$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.08 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Under | 49c | 271.43$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 12c | 252.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.36 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Under | 48c | 241.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.11 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Under | 49c | 215$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.35 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbee…17c4backed Over | 9c | 200$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 18c | 159$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.38 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Over | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Under | 49c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…b163backed Under | 50c | 26.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 215.5this page
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Pistons vs. NuggetsPistons won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 214.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 216.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 217.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 218.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Nuggets: O/U 219.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Nuggets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.