Fifa International · resolved market
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Ecuador?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bab127d2c72287d04dc4bf89d0ffd1b2372d4379b2832de840aa54a53d17758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $195,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 28,816$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…fe32backed Yes | 1c | 10,588$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 290 | 18.6%54 W · 236 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…0cf1backed Yes | 1c | 8,799$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 115 | 5.2%6 W · 109 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7763…7830backed Yes | 1c | 6,902$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…e7cdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,487$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…464ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,438$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…6e87backed Yes | 1c | 4,831$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 8.6%7 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…3c6abacked Yes | 1c | 3,384$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…ab0fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,312$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 502 | 14.5%73 W · 429 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 1c | 3,254$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 31.4%61 W · 133 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 278 | 11.9%33 W · 245 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…0bd0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2419backed Yes | 1c | 1,923$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfd…038bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 364 | 23.6%86 W · 278 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11cd…e5a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,422$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 30%42 W · 98 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c6…1462backed Yes | 1c | 1,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 19.3%60 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…9fd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,071$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 16.2%36 W · 186 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…cf16backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 626 | 6.7%42 W · 584 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…a8a7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…a26abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…3b09backed Yes | 1c | 942.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…e947backed Yes | 1c | 920.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Yes | 1c | 890.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 26.1%90 W · 255 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Ecuador?this page
- Exact Score: Any Other Score?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Ecuador?Yes won
- Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Ecuador?No won
- Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Ecuador?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.