TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$82,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$84,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,783 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed Cincinnati Reds53c43,419$23,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,012.1431149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Chicago Cubs47c25,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,25086548.7%421 W · 444 L-8.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Chicago Cubs63c15,000$9,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,550.2651756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs47c13,569$6,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,213.5911,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds37c8,717$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,225.7610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Cincinnati Reds54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,24021748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…c8d3backed Cincinnati Reds53c3,500$1,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,854.989350.5%47 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs48c3,177$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.4312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Cincinnati Reds53c2,678$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,419.3377951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Chicago Cubs47c2,124$998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.727750.6%39 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Chicago Cubs47c1,714$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.061,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Chicago Cubs47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79575248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs47c626.63$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.44,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Chicago Cubs47c597$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.4175049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Chicago Cubs47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5394034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds53c400.89$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.471,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Chicago Cubs47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21222848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Chicago Cubs49c399.98$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.9960350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds53c397.92$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.96,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Chicago Cubs47c382.35$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.651,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds53c377.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds47c326.84$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.958,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs47c298.56$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.242,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds52c284.03$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.75,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b5…7e72backed Cincinnati Reds53c250$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.511849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Chicago Cubs47c224.15$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.870154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Chicago Cubs47c220$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.648354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Cincinnati Reds48c209$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.321,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3356946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Chicago Cubs47c181$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.931,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs47c156.27$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.378,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Cincinnati Reds53c152$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5613452.2%70 W · 64 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef2…fdb6backed Cincinnati Reds52c138$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.761323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.1wins-0.32per pick55cpaid-60.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs47c134$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0272154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs59c118.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.38,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds54c111.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6048150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Cincinnati Reds46c102.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1599744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Cincinnati Reds53c99.75$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5378454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs49c98.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.393,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x059d…10e3backed Cincinnati Reds54c92.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024646.7%115 W · 131 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs49c86.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.844,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Chicago Cubs47c85.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1124248.8%118 W · 124 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Chicago Cubs55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.439344.3%174 W · 219 L-22.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Chicago Cubs47c76$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.281,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Cincinnati Reds53c75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7521353.5%114 W · 99 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds39c71.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7884122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds54c64.81$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3548651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5559…2bd2backed Chicago Cubs47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.834856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…e4a2backed Chicago Cubs47c63.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.837450%37 W · 37 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds53c59.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.791,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Cincinnati Reds53c57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2172247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs47c53.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.1916345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs47c51.1$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2973748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a2b…d4e9backed Cincinnati Reds53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Chicago Cubs46c49.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.991,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Cincinnati Reds48c49.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6824654.9%135 W · 111 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago Cubs50c47.83$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.921,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds54c46.3$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526351.3%135 W · 128 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95e4…5134backed Chicago Cubs48c46.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.796248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds48c43.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.976,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Chicago Cubs47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.559147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Chicago Cubs47c42.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5521554.9%118 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago Cubs47c37.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Chicago Cubs55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.369748.5%47 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3534…a1b3backed Chicago Cubs47c30.38$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.17051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Chicago Cubs46c29.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1981651.8%423 W · 393 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d2…380bbacked Cincinnati Reds51c29.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.849344.1%41 W · 52 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds54c27.78$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1527452.6%144 W · 130 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33b3…e861backed Cincinnati Reds55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152352.2%12 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fb4…d080backed Chicago Cubs47c26.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1214245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago Cubs47c23.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6732550.5%164 W · 161 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Chicago Cubs68c22.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.351,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d79…1aabbacked Chicago Cubs47c21.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.431752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a4…6f8fbacked Chicago Cubs51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Chicago Cubs77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4545550.3%229 W · 226 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.