NFL · resolved market
Will a player cry during the national anthem at Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cb2a696de1d1db19566352d7b1d927dbe861f6c51476490d6176b8896076cea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Yes | 67c | 9,848$6,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,598.44 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked No | 33c | 9,754$3,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,559.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.98 | 176 | 48.9%86 W · 90 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf785…05edbacked Yes | 1c | 2,419$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,140$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 33c | 602.54$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.93 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 69c | 572.04$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 26c | 457.8$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.74 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 72c | 300$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 73c | 204.63$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 23c | 199.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 16c | 122.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked No | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 64c | 78.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +56%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 72c | 77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Yes | 74c | 75.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…6ad1backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…f415backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…13febacked Yes | 74c | 57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eab…df8bbacked No | 26c | 57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc35…f988backed Yes | 74c | 50.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…b81bbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 69c | 46.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbde4…4cc7backed Yes | 74c | 46$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…4621backed No | 26c | 46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b1…ca74backed Yes | 77c | 45.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25dd…1a7bbacked Yes | 74c | 36.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed Yes | 73c | 34.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 72c | 21.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…c1f9backed Yes | 73c | 18.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a player cry during the national anthem at Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Who will be shown first during national anthem- Chiefs or Eagles?Eagles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.